Another night, another Padres game that settled comfortably under the total. Now let’s try to make it a winning streak with tonight’s over/under.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 47-29-2, +14.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Braves Under 8.5, Strahm vs. Teheran (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels | O/U: 7.5
10:07 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Probable Pitchers: Zack Greinke (5-5, 3.87 ERA) vs. Jaime Barria (5-2, 2.61 ERA)
This is only Zack Greinke’s second start back at the Big A after leaving the Angels after the 2012 season, when he was acquired as a rental just days prior to the trade deadline. While he only spent a few months with the Halos, there’s usually some sort of sentimental feeling when a pitcher returns to face an ex-team, especially in a setting where they experienced success.
Greinke was solid at Angel Stadium when it was the place he called home, ending up 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while notching a 56/11 K/BB ratio across 47 innings. He’s been back once since, recording a quality start there during the ’15 campaign.
But it’s much more than stats from six years ago as to why it’s a smart idea to lean on the 15-year veteran in this particular spot. One, he’s in rare territory that he typically bounces back from, having allowed four or more runs in consecutive starts. That’s happened four other times to Greinke since 2014, and in the follow-up start in each instance, he ended up yielding two runs or fewer.