Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, Sept. 3)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Betting Odds

Odds updated as of Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Dodgers will go for a sweep of Diamondbacks on Thursday as they send Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Arizona will counter with Luke Weaver, who has been nothing short of a disaster so far this season. Los Angeles' bats were quiet Wednesday, but I think they'll wake up with Weaver on the mound.

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Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Diamondbacks Probable Starter

Luke Weaver, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Luke Weaver has been an unmitigated catastrophe so far this season. He’s accumulated an ERA of 8.23 and an xFIP of 4.65 through his first 27.1 innings of 2020. Weaver’s main issue has been his fastball, which has allowed a .344 batting average and .441 wOBA to the opposition. He's also had a big-time issue giving up the long ball, as his HR/9 rate is all the way up at 2.63 this year.

Weaver's secondary pitches haven't been effective either, with his cumulative arsenal allowing a wOBA over .350. He'll have a difficult matchup against the Dodgers in this spot, largely due to the fact they've been the best team hitting curveballs and second best against fastballs. Weaver will have to utilize his changeup and slider a lot if he wants to be somewhat effective.

Dodgers Projected Lineup

The Dodgers lineup has been on fire over the past two weeks, hitting 20 home runs, and that's led to a .353 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Los Angeles has done most of its damage against right-handed pitching, with a .356 wOBA and 125 wRC+, which is the best mark in Major League Baseball. Mookie Betts and Corey Seager have been crushing right-handed pitching, with both boasting wOBAs over .465.

The Dodgers have also been really successful versus fastballs this season, with 23.1 weighted fastball runs. So, they'll have a great matchup against Weaver, who throws his fastball more than 48% of the time.

Bullpens

The Diamondbacks bullpen has struggled mightily this season, recording a 5.16 ERA. Arizona’s relievers have combined for a 4.76 xFIP, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the entire league. Not to mention the Diamondbacks dealt  Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin — their best relievers — at the trade deadline, so the Dodgers should be able to feast on their depleted bullpen.

Projections and Pick 

I think the Dodgers lineup has an incredible matchup against Weaver and the Diamondbacks bullpen. I have the Dodgers projected for 6.36 runs in this matchup, so I think there is value on their team total of over 5.5 runs at +115 and I would play it up to -110.

Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (+115)