Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, May 31.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Sunday, May 31
- C.J. Abrams Over 1.5 HRR, James Wood 1+ HR
- Rays F5 -0.5
- Braves ML, Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR
- Juan Soto alt 2+ Hits
- Brewers ML, Christian Yelich Over 1.5 HRR
- Over, Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 TB
- Mariners ML/Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB (SGP), Ketel Marte 1+ HR
- Dodgers ML, Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 HRR
Padres vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
Friars’ right-hander Griffin Canning will take the mound, while righty Zack Littell is scheduled to be on the bump for the host Nationals.
In five starts thus far, Canning has recorded a horrific 7.54 ERA to go along with a 1.54 WHIP. The Padres’ righty has allowed a whopping 19 earned runs (ER) in less than 23 frames on the mound.
Like Canning, Littell is also in atrocious form, with the Nationals’ right-hander having recorded a 5.23 ERA across his first 11 starts in 2026. Washington’s righty has allowed 31 ER in just 51 innings pitched this season.
Given the inefficiency of both starting pitchers in Sunday’s clash, I will be looking to target player prop markets as my primary betting angle.
In eight previous at-bats (AB) versus Canning, Nationals shortstop C.J. Abrams has recorded four hits with two doubles and a home run.
Washington’s 25-year-old superstar is having a phenomenal 2026 season thus far, with Abrams having recorded 47 RBIs, which rank second in all of baseball. The Nationals’ youngster is also batting .291 with an exceptional .936 OPS.
In addition to Abrams’ previous success versus the Padres’ right-hander, it will most definitely be a revenge spot for the Nationals’ youngster after having been traded from San Diego as a highly touted prospect early in his career.
In a matchup where I am expecting a ton of offense, given the horrific form of both starters, I will be looking to back Abrams to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) mark ahead of Sunday’s matchup.
Nationals lefty slugger James Wood has also thrived versus Canning, having recorded three hits and a homer across seven plate appearances (PA).
After smashing 31 homers and driving in 91 runners (RBIs) in just his second season in the big leagues in 2025, Washington’s 23-year-old is picking up right where he left off.
Wood has smashed 15 homers in 2026 thus far and has also recorded 37 RBIs while posting a .936 OPS.
In a game where I expect Canning to get absolutely rocked, I'm willing to take a shot on the Nationals’ young lefty to homer on Sunday afternoon.
Picks: C.J. Abrams Over 1.5 HRR, James Wood 1+ HR
Angels vs Rays Picks
The Rays and Angels will duke it out on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Tropicana Field in Tampa.
Tampa left-hander Shane McClanahan will surely be looking to continue his scorching start to 2026, having recorded a 2.25 ERA and a remarkable 1.04 WHIP across 10 outings thus far.
After suffering numerous injuries over the course of two years, including an elbow nerve issue among others, the Rays’ lefty is finally healthy and has reverted back to his previous elite form on the mound.
From 2021 through 2023, McClanahan recorded a sub-3.40 ERA in all three seasons and was undoubtedly one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball.
In 2026, Tampa’s left-hander has quickly re-established himself as one of the premier starters in the big leagues and certainly gets a favorable matchup on Sunday afternoon against a struggling Angels lineup.
Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz has not had the same luck as his Sunday counterpart, with the 25-year-old recording a 4.99 ERA in 11 starts.
While Los Angeles’ young righty began his 2026 campaign with a few solid outings, he has since spiraled, allowing a troubling 20 earned runs in his last 22 innings.
Given the significant edge the Rays have in the pitching department ahead of Sunday’s American League clash, I will be looking to back Tampa to cover its first-five run line (F5 -0.5) in a game where I expect McClanahan to continue his scorching form.
Pick: Rays F5 -0.5
Braves vs Reds Picks
The Reds will host the Braves on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo will take the mound after having just returned from the IL due to a blister on his left throwing hand, and he has struggled mightily over his first four starts in 2026.
After a tremendous 2025 campaign in which the Reds' lefty finished the season with a 3.33 ERA along with a 1.08 WHIP, I was expecting great things from Lodolo this season, but that has been far from the case thus far.
In his first four outings, Lodolo has already allowed 13 earned runs in just 21 innings pitched (IP) on the mound, and will get his toughest test of the season with a scorching Braves lineup lying in wait.
Braves 27-year-old righty Spencer Strider is trending in the complete opposite direction from his Sunday counterpart, with Atlanta’s ace having recorded a 3.46 ERA on the mound thus far.
Like Lodolo, Strider has also dealt with significant injury concerns, but to a far worse extent than the Reds lefty. Upon returning from elbow surgery at the end of 2024, the Braves right-hander suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain that forced him to miss the first month of the season.
That said, Strider has reverted back to his previous elite form and is posting career-best pitching metrics across the board since recording a 2.67 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP back in 2022.
In a matchup where the Braves will have a significant edge in both their lineup and starting pitcher, I love Atlanta in this spot, where we could certainly still get some betting value with Sunday afternoon’s contest set to be played on the road in Cincinnati.
For my first betting angle in this National League clash, I will be looking to back the Braves on the moneyline. Also, I will be targeting some player prop markets, as I expect Lodolo to have another rough outing on the mound on Sunday.
Over the course of his career, the Reds lefty has struggled far more against left-handed batters than righties, which is a very common dynamic among left-handed pitchers. That said, I will be looking to target Braves OF Michael Harris, who is in scorching form at the plate.
The Braves lefty has previously faced Lodolo just twice but got the best of their previous encounters, ripping a triple in his last meeting with the Reds left-hander.
In a game where the Braves may consistently have runners on the basepaths, considering Lodolo’s struggles on the mound thus far, I feel good targeting Harris to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark in what sets up to be a prime matchup for Atlanta’s lefty slugger.
Picks: Braves ML, Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR
Marlins vs Mets Picks
The Marlins and Mets will square off at Citi Field on Sunday afternoon in what may set up to be a very closely contested NL East showdown in Queens.
Mets 24-year-old right-hander Nolan McLean is set to take the mound and will surely be looking to bounce back from his last two starts after beginning his 2026 campaign in rather promising form.
In McLean’s last nine innings on the bump, he has allowed an atrocious 13 earned runs, and he is coming off his worst start of the season, with the Reds scoring seven runs off New York’s righty in less than four frames.
Like McLean, Marlins 30-year-old righty Janson Junk is also having a pretty subpar 2026 season thus far. Junk has recorded a 4.80 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP.
After allowing 15 earned runs and 18 hits in less than 11 frames, Junk bounced back in his last start, surrendering just one run to a tough Blue Jays lineup.
Junk will surely be looking to build upon his last stellar outing on the mound and will face a struggling Mets bunch coming off a nine-game losing streak.
That said, I would not be surprised to see the Mets start to turn things around after entering 2026 as one of the favorites to win the World Series following an NLCS appearance in 2025 that ended with a six-game loss to the eventual champion Dodgers.
While Junk’s last start was somewhat promising, I will still be targeting some Mets player prop markets in a game where I expect New York’s lineup to bounce back in a big way.
In two previous encounters versus the Marlins right-hander, Mets lefty slugger Juan Soto recorded one hit off Junk.
New York’s superstar outfielder is having a remarkable second season with the Mets, posting a .300 batting average and a .977 OPS thus far. Soto has also smashed 12 homers and driven in 24 runners (RBIs) over the Mets’ first nearly 60 games of the season.
I expect Soto to deliver in a big way on Sunday afternoon and will be looking to target the Mets' lefty to exceed an alternate 1.5 hits mark, which should extract significant value from Junk’s poor form on the bump in 2026.
Pick: Juan Soto Alt 2+ Hits
Brewers vs Astros Picks
The Astros will host the Brewers on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid Park) in Houston.
Astros 28-year-old right-hander Tatsuya Imai will take the mound for the home team, while 6-foot-6 strikeout demon Jacob Misiorowski will get the start for the visiting Brewers in Sunday’s interleague clash.
Brewers right-hander Misiorowski is having an exceptional second season in the big leagues, with the extremely highly touted pitching prospect currently posting a 1.83 ERA along with a 0.83 WHIP on the season thus far.
In addition to his elite efficiency metrics on the mound, the 6-foot-6 righty leads all pitchers with a whopping 100 strikeouts across his 11 outings in 2026.
Misiorowski may just be the most unique starting pitcher since the great Randy Johnson, with freakish stature and a four-seam fastball that consistently touches 104 mph.
His pitching style and mechanics consist of a massive extension, which allows him to generate incredible rotational power on his high-velocity pitches. Misiorowski has been measured to stride over 7.5 feet off the mound, which brings his release point that much closer to the plate.
For a pitcher already consistently hitting 102-104 mph on the mound, his proximity to the batter’s box makes it even tougher on hitters to make contact with the great majority of his pitching arsenal.
In addition to an elite four-seam fastball, the Brewers youngster boasts an elite slider as well, which often touches the mid-90s with incredible movement across the plate.
Unlike his Sunday counterpart, the Astros’ Imai has struggled far more on the mound over the course of his 2026 campaign thus far.
The 28-year-old Japanese product has recorded a 6.17 ERA to go along with a 1.50 WHIP across six starts this season.
For a starter who struggles to retire batters with a rather low strikeout rate (K/9), I worry about him facing a Milwaukee lineup that features tremendous versatility on both sides of the plate.
Given the Astros right-hander’s struggles on the mound thus far, I will be looking to target two different betting angles ahead of Sunday afternoon’s contest.
For my first betting angle, I will be looking to back the Brewers on the moneyline in a game in which Milwaukee should have a massive advantage in the pitching department. Also, I favor backing Brewers veteran Christian Yelich to find success at the plate versus a struggling Imai.
Imai relies heavily on an off-speed arsenal, boasting a unique high-spin slider that tricks many hitters at the plate who are not used to seeing it break in the opposite direction.
That said, I think Yelich matches up tremendously with Houston’s right-hander, given his elite power and plate discipline from the left side of the plate.
Though the two have yet to face one another, given Imai’s short tenure in the major leagues, I favor backing Yelich to exceed his HRR mark in a game where the Brewers could rock the Astros righty for several runs.
Picks: Brewers ML, Christian Yelich Over 1.5 HRR
Yankees vs Athletics Picks
The Yankees and Athletics conclude a three-game series in Sacramento in what sets up to be a prime American League clash featuring two lineups that have been very impressive at the plate in 2026.
Yankees righty Will Warren is set to take the mound and will surely be looking to continue his promising form to start the season. New York’s 26-year-old right-hander has recorded a 3.55 ERA thus far, along with a stellar 1.17 WHIP.
Warren has an impressive 6-1 record on the mound this season across 11 starts and has certainly been one of the more under-the-radar starters in elite form in 2026.
The Athletics will trot out their 28-year-old left-hander Jacob Lopez, who is trending in the complete opposite direction from his opposing starting pitcher on Sunday afternoon.
In nine starts this season, Lopez has recorded an atrocious 5.73 ERA with an equally ugly 1.77 WHIP on the mound. The Athletics lefty will have a great opportunity to bounce back on Sunday while pitching at the club’s temporary home, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
While Warren has been impressive in 2026 thus far, I expect Sunday’s matchup to deliver runs, given how impressive some of the A’s young hitters have been this season.
For the first betting angle ahead of this American League showdown, I will be betting the game total to soar over on Sunday in a game where I expect both starting pitchers to struggle.
In addition to targeting the game total, I favor backing Athletics lefty slugger Nick Kurtz to have a massive game at the plate. While Warren has been very impressive thus far vs. right-handed hitters, lefties have thrived far more against New York’s right-hander.
Despite a sluggish start to his 2026 campaign, Athletics 23-year-old superstar first baseman (1B) Nick Kurtz has caught fire at the plate. The A’s youngster is coming off a phenomenal rookie campaign, having finished the season with an incredible 36 homers along with 86 RBIs.
While Kurtz’s surface stats in 2026 are far from impressive, the Athletics slugger has been spectacular at the plate in the month of May, posting a .947 OPS with four homers and 23 RBIs.
In the first game of this series on Friday night, Kurtz smashed one out of the park, and I would not be surprised if he does the same on Sunday, given Warren’s far inferior metrics against left-handed power hitters like the A’s youngster.
While Warren’s sweeping breaking ball and sharp sinker often give right-handed batters fits, lefties have crushed his off-speed arsenal and have recorded a .270 batting average against the Yankees righty, compared to a .222 mark for right-handed hitters.
For a second betting angle in Sunday afternoon’s American League clash, I will be looking to back the Athletics lefty slugger to maintain his momentum at the plate and exceed his 1.5 total bases mark.
Picks: Over, Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 TB
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Picks
The Diamondbacks and Mariners will duke it out on Sunday afternoon at the M’s home ballpark, T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Mariners righty Bryce Miller will take the mound, while the Snakes will start 37-year-old veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Miller has been phenomenal thus far in his fourth season in the big leagues, all of which he has spent with Seattle. The Mariners’ 27-year-old right-hander struggled considerably in 2025, posting a 5.68 ERA after recording a career-best 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP the year prior.
Miller has fortunately reverted to his elite 2024 form across three outings this season after missing the first two months of the year with a left oblique strain.
While the Mariners’ righty has made only three starts in 2026, he appears to be in great health, and his form is very promising for a Seattle club that will surely need his help in its expected postseason rotation.
Across those three outings, Miller has posted a remarkable 2.25 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP in 16 innings of work.
That said, the Mariners’ righty will likely face his toughest test of the season thus far against a Diamondbacks lineup that is heating up at the plate behind an absolute tear from superstar second baseman (2B) Ketel Marte.
While Miller has been rather impressive, the same cannot be said of veteran Kelly, who has recorded an atrocious 5.25 ERA through eight starts in 2026.
The Diamondbacks’ righty is coming off a stellar 2025 campaign in which he finished the season with a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP.
Kelly has been unable to repeat that elite form this season and gets another tough matchup on Sunday afternoon against an unbelievably versatile Mariners lineup featuring several talented hitters.
For my first betting angle ahead of Sunday’s interleague clash, I will be looking to bet a same-game parlay (SGP) with negatively correlated legs that should allow us to extract maximum value given the inverse relationship between the two.
In a game where I expect the Mariners to have an edge at home and a superior starting pitcher, I favor taking a shot on the M’s to reign supreme on Sunday as the first leg of our SGP.
That said, I will be looking to target a Snakes hitter who, when paired with a Mariners moneyline wager, should magnify our payout quite substantially.
Though Marte and Miller have yet to face one another, I give the Diamondbacks slugger a massive edge in this matchup.
While Miller boasts tremendous command of his four-seam fastball, frequently placing it up in the zone with high spin rates, the pitch is far more effective against right-handed hitters.
Diamondbacks switch-hitting slugger Marte thrives against high-velocity right-handed pitching, especially when hitting from the left side of the plate, which is certainly the expectation given Miller’s far inferior splits against left-handed power hitters.
Ketel is one of the best hitters in all of baseball against four-seam fastballs, especially when they are thrown frequently and left over the plate.
The Snakes’ three-time All-Star boasts impressive patience in the box, often resulting in opposing pitchers falling behind in counts early in at-bats.
If Miller is unable to throw strikes early in Sunday’s contest, he will be forced to rely on his highest-velocity pitches, which should play right into Ketel’s wheelhouse given the power he generates from the left side of the box.
That said, I will be looking to pair the Mariners moneyline with Marte to exceed his 1.5 total bases mark in what should result in a great value play ahead of Sunday afternoon’s interleague battle in Seattle.
In addition to my SGP, I am also willing to take a shot on Marte to smash one out of the park on Sunday, considering his ability to drive elevated fastballs.
After a sluggish start to his 2026 campaign, Ketel is now red hot at the plate, with the Diamondbacks’ 32-year-old posting a .316 batting average in the month of May.
The Snakes’ superstar slugger is slashing a .926 OPS over the last 30 days and has smashed four homers in the process.
Given his scorching form at the plate and expected edge over the Mariners’ right-hander, Ketel is a prime target in the home run prop market.
Picks: Mariners ML/Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB (SGP), Ketel Marte 1+ HR
Phillies vs Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers will host the Phillies to conclude a three-game homestand at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks to continue what has been a rather impressive 2026 campaign, while lefty Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the visiting Phillies on Sunday afternoon.
In just his third season in the big leagues after having pitched in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), Yamamoto has quickly established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in all of baseball.
In a five-year span from 2019 through 2023, the Dodgers righty staked his claim as the best pitcher in the history of Japan’s NPB, with Yamamoto having recorded a marvelous 1.65 ERA across over 820 innings pitched (IP).
Though many were skeptical about Yamamoto’s ability to repeat his stretch of dominance at the highest level in MLB, Los Angeles’ right-hander proved to be the real deal, posting an average 2.75 ERA across his first two seasons in the league.
Yamamoto is off to another scorching start across 10 starts on the mound to begin his 2026 campaign, with the Dodgers righty having posted a 3.09 ERA thus far, along with an extraordinary 0.98 WHIP as well.
The Japanese product has allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts across 14 frames on the mound and will look to conclude a stellar month of May, yet will face a tough Phillies lineup on Sunday afternoon.
While Yamamoto is in elite form in 2026, the same cannot be said of Phillies lefty Luzardo, who has posted a subpar 4.83 ERA on the season thus far.
While Philadelphia’s left-hander has demonstrated elite strikeout prowess, ranking 12th among all starters with 72 punchouts, he has otherwise struggled to retire opposing hitters, often struggling with command and falling behind in counts.
In addition to his lack of control within his pitching arsenal, many have reported that Luzardo often tips his pitches as well, with hitters being able to recognize which of his pitches is coming next.
While the Phillies’ 28-year-old boasts an elite high-velocity four-seam fastball, the rest of his arsenal has shown sizable susceptibility to heavy damage and high contact rates. That said, it is a rough time for Luzardo to face the premier offensive lineup in all of baseball: the Dodgers.
In a matchup where I expect the Dodgers to have a big pitching edge, I will be looking to back Los Angeles on the moneyline to conclude the week with another big victory on Sunday afternoon.
For a secondary betting angle, I will be looking to extract value from Luzardo’s current struggles on the mound and thus will target one of the Dodgers hitters in a player prop market.
Given the Phillies lefty has pitched several years in the National League, many of the Dodgers hitters have quite a previous history versus Luzardo.
Upon deciding which hitter to target in a stacked Dodgers lineup, I definitely favor backing a left-handed hitter given Luzardo’s far inferior metrics when pitching against lefties than righties.
In 15 previous at-bats versus the Phillies lefty, Dodgers slugger Freddie Freeman has recorded five hits, including two doubles, a triple and a home run.
That said, I feel good targeting the Dodgers first baseman (1B) to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark in a game where I expect Los Angeles to frequently have runners on the basepaths.
Picks: Dodgers ML, Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 HRR
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, May 31
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- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR, James Wood 1+ HR
- Rays F5 -0.5
- Braves ML, Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR
- Juan Soto alt 2+ Hits
- Brewers ML, Christian Yelich Over 1.5 HRR
- Over, Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 TB
- Mariners ML/Ketel Marte Over 1.5 TB (SGP), Ketel Marte 1+ HR
- Dodgers ML, Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 HRR
