Padres vs. Dodgers Odds & Pick (Wednesday, August 12): Suspect Starting Pitching Offers Value on the Over

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Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts

  • Check out BJ Cunningham's MLB betting preview with odds, picks and predictions for Wednesday's game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
  • Earlier today, the Dodgers scratched Julio Urias in favor of Tony Gonsolin, resulting in a mediocre starting pitching battle between Gonsolin and Zach Davies.
  • As a result, Cunningham sees ample value on the over in this contest. Find his full breakdown below.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds

Padres Odds +138 [Bet Now]
Dodgers Odds -157 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-104/-118) [Bet Now]
First Pitch Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET 

Odds as of Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Editor’s Note: The Los Angeles Dodgers have scratched Julio Urias in favor of Tony Gonsolin. The article below has been updated to reflect that change.

The San Diego Padres took the first two games of their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers and now find themselves locked in a tie with the National League favorites for second place in the NL West.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

San Diego Padres

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Padres offense has been on fire so far this season. They rank second in the MLB with a .338 wOBA and 119 wRC+. Their shortstop, Fernando Tatis Jr., is having a fabulous season and has established himself as one of the best young players in the game. He’s already hit eight homers and driven in 15 runs, which has lead to a .487 wOBA in his first 17 games. They’ll have a favorable matchup against Gonsolin on Wednesday as they’ve been crushing right handed pitching to the tune of a .345 wOBA as a team.

Padres Projected Starter

Zach Davies, RHP

Projected Stats & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Zach Davies is a “fill up the zone” type of pitcher. He’s not going to overpower you with velocity, he’s going to throw a ton of strikes and keep the ball down in the zone to try to produce ground balls. His 5.75 K/9 tells you that he needs to induce soft contact to succeed on any given night. Davies struggled to a career-worst 40.1% ground-ball rate in 2019 and that led to a 5.20 xFIP.

Davies mainly utilizes a sinker and changeup. Both can be effective if he’s on point with his location, but if he’s off even a little bit he can give up a lot of runs since his velocity is so low.

The Dodgers ranked second against sinkers and seventh against changeups in 2019, so Davies will have his hands full on Wednesday night.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

As expected, the Dodgers offense has been solid through their first 18 games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in the Majors with a .323 wOBA and 111 wRC+.

The Dodgers are led by Corey Seager and AJ Pollock who both boast wOBAs over .400 to begin the season.

Dodgers Projected Starter

Tony Gonsolin, RHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

In 2019, Tony Gonsolin posted a 2.92 ERA and a .177 BA against in 40 innings  in his first season in the show. However, those numbers are a little deceiving as his xFIP was a whopping 4.98. His main pitch is his fastball (47.9% thrown in 2019), but has average velocity (93.6 mph) without a lot of movement. Hitters tagged it pretty good in 2019, compiling a .347 wOBA.

His secondary pitches, however, were really effective in 2019. Cycling between a split-finger fastball, slider, and curveball, Gonsolin allowed just nine hits in 361 pitches. The split-finger has a lot of action moving in on right handed hits while his curveball has 12-to-6 motion and a really good bite. His slider is the least effective of the three, lacking any big movement and leaving him prone to hanging pitches in the zone.

With how hot the Padres offense has been against righties this season, it’s difficult to see how Gonsolin is going to keep them in check.

Bullpens

The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball and they’ve been showing it in 2020. So far they’ve collectively posted a 3.37 xFIP, which ranks second in the MLB.

The Padres’ bullpen has struggled to a 4.64 xFIP this season, which is a huge disappointment considering San Diego was expected to have one of the strongest units in the NL coming into the season.

Projections and Pick

The Dodgers switched from Urias to Gonsolin this morning, which in my opinion is a significant change, but the line didn’t move that much.

Personally, I can’t trust Zach Davies in any capacity, but there is value on the Padres, so if you have more courage than me, then San Diego is worth a bet.

My attention will be focused on the total for this game, because it’s simply too low. With two of the best offenses in the NL and two bad starters on the mound, I think this is a recipe for a a lot of runs. I’ll take Over 9 runs at -104 and would bet it up to -115.

Pick: Over 9 runs (-104)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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