MLB Betting Picks: Our Staff’s Bets for Braves vs. Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball (Aug. 30)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna
- Looking for betting picks for Braves vs. Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball?
- Our staff is making two bets on the matchup (7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN) -- one on Braves team total and one on the full-game total.
- Check out our top plays below.
Sunday Night Baseball Odds: Braves vs. Phillies
Tommy Milone (1–4, 3.99 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (1-0, 2.35 ERA)
|Braves moneyline||-108 [Bet Now]|
|Phillies moneyline||-108 [Bet Now]|
|Braves run line||-1.5 (+150) [Bet Now]|
|Phillies run line||+1.5 (-182) [Bet Now]|
|Over/under||9.5 (-104/-118) [Bet Now]|
|Time||7:08 p.m. ET|
Make it a second straight Sunday featuring the Braves and Phillies in primetime — though this time they’ll face off in Philadelphia.
Find our staff’s favorite bets for tonight’s matchup below.
Sunday Night Baseball Picks
BJ Cunningham: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (+102)
The Braves have been crushing the ball over the past 14 days, with a .346 wOBA and 117 wRC+. Which is impressive considering half of those games were without Ronald Acuna. Freddie Freeman has been carrying the Braves offensively over that time span, hitting .389 to go along with a .488 wOBA.
Atlanta has done most of its damage against right-handed pitching, ranking sixth in the MLB with a .343 wOBA and 114 wRC+. The Braves have also been the second-best team against sinkers this season, which is Arrieta’s primary pitch, so they’ll have a good matchup on Saturday.
Arrieta has taken a big step back since joining the Phillies. The reason for that is his sinker is a lot less effective than it used to be.
During his breakout season in 2015, Arrieta was dominant with his sinker, allowing only a .191 BA and a .236 wOBA to his opponents. Fast forward to 2020, and he’s allowed a .346 BA and a .411 wOBA against his sinker. His slider is his only effective pitch right now, allowing only a .139 wOBA to opponents so far this year.
The bad news is the Braves ranking in the top six in baseball against both sinkers and sliders, so he’ll have a tough time navigating Atlanta’s lineup on Sunday night.
I have the Braves projected for 4.97 runs on Sunday night, so I think there is value on their team total of Over 4.5 runs at +102.
Danny Donahue: Under 9.5 (-120)
Rather than attempting to analyze the matchup (since I’m not good enough at that), I’ll be leaning on indications from the betting market for this one, as I often do.
Most folks are expecting somewhat of a high scoring output tonight. Two of every three tickets being placed on the total have landed on the over, but this number has actually been falling a bit since it opened — most books opened it at 10 — meaning sharper bettors are probably going against that majority.
Also worth noting: the 34% of bets landing on the under have generated 87% of actual money hitting the total — another indicator of sharp action.
And with the under’s minority backing, it’s currently fitting one of our PRO betting systems:
Toss in an umpire with a slight edge to the under (they’ve hit at a 54.1% rate in Ramon De Jesus’ games) and a slight breeze coming in from left-center, and I’ve heard enough to feel comfortable banking on nine runs or fewer.