Mets vs Cubs Prediction, Pick, MLB Odds for Friday, April 17

The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets on April 17, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.

The Cubs are favored by -149 on the moneyline and by +129 on the run line (1.5). The Mets are +123 on the moneyline and -156 on the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 10.5 runs.

Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction

• Mets vs Cubs Pick: Kodai Senga Under 14.5 Outs (+122)

My Mets vs Cubs best bet is Kodai Senga to record under 14.5 outs this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Friday, April 17

2:20 p.m. ET

MARQ

Mets Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -156	10.5 -112o / -108u	+123

Cubs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +129	10.5 -112o / -108u	-149

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Mets vs Cubs spread: Mets +1.5 (-156), Cubs -1.5 (+129)
• Mets vs Cubs over/under: 10.5 (-112o / -108u)
• Mets vs Cubs moneyline: Mets +123, Cubs -149

Mets vs Cubs Preview

New York Mets

We have two pitchers going in this game who are pretty similar. They have some of the game's best stuff (in some regards), but they both struggle with command in a way that makes them really hard to put your finger on. You truly cannot know what you'll get with either Kodai Senga or Edward Cabrera.

I'm a little surprised the Cubs are a decent favorite in this one. I would have pegged this one at a pick 'em. However, Juan Soto going on the IL moves the needle, and that's probably why we see this line where it is.

Let's take a look first at the Mets starter, Kodai Senga. His three starts have shown the full range of outcomes he brings.

• March 31: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 SO, 3 BB
• April 5: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 SO, 2 BB
• April 11: 2.1 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 3 SO,  2 BB

Check out the fastball velocity trend. This was something to monitor right out of the gate, because Senga was flashing a large velo increase in spring.

• March 31: 97.4 on the four-seamer, 90.5 on the sinker
• April 5: 96.0 on the four-seamer, 90.0 on the sinker
• April 11: 95.6 on the four-seamer, 86.6 on the sinker

So it's no surprise that his swinging strike rate fell off the table in that last start. His velo gains were completely gone. I'm not sure if it's correlated, but his ball rate also blew up in that third start.

• March 31: 18.5 SwStr%, 39.1% Ball%
• April 5: 13.6% SwStr%, 37.5% Ball%
• April 11: 8.3% SwStr%, 44.4% Ball%

The league-average SwStr% is around 12%, and the league-average ball rate is around 36%. He's been throwing balls at a high rate all year, but in that last start, it was particularly bad, and he didn't have the whiffs going to bail him out.

So I think it's right to pick on Senga here. It's possible the velo snaps back, but any sort of consecutive drop is concerning, especially around this time of year, to be honest. Some guys go a little bit too hard in the spring and in the first couple of starts, and they gas themselves out early on. It's a little bit of that April "dead arm" they talk about.

Chicago Cubs

Edward Cabrera has also lacked command this season. His near 14% walk rate and 41% Ball% are both much too high for the Cubs' comfort. He's always been wild, but he did make some positive strides forward last year, which probably encouraged the Cubs to go out and acquire him for this year.

Despite the ugly peripherals, he's gotten by, giving up just three earned runs in his 16.2 innings for a 1.62 ERA. But that number is going to bloat. You can't post a good ERA with a single-digit K-BB%, and the 1.14 WHIP doesn't make a lot of sense either, with how many free passes he's handing out.

What E-Cab has always done well is limit the hard contact. He has yet to surrender a home run this year, while allowing an elite .218 SLG. Of course, a .227 BABIP has helped him out, but I believe in him as a better-than-average home run preventer.

He throws this changeup of his 38% of the time, and that pitch has generated a 63% GB% when it's been put in play. It doesn't get put in play super often with the 17% SwStr% and 38% Ball%, but it's a welcome outcome for him when someone does get the bat on it.

Also, he won't allow a 0% HR/FB for much longer, and his lack of command will probably push him to throw more fastballs, which he doesn't really want to do with his best pitch being that changeup.

Mets vs Cubs Picks

I don't talk much in particular about the hitters during these write-ups, because so much of the game's outcome hinges on the starting pitchers.

My walk projections (which you can find at MLB Data Warehouse) are north of five between the two of these guys:

• Senga: 2.6 walks
• Cabrera: 2.55 walks

The weather at Wrigley has been a huge factor in betting these Cubs games this year, but we're looking at a pretty neutral situation for this one. The total of 9.5 shows you that.

We've seen games at 6.5 and games at 12.5, and that's been highly impacted by the wind forecast. If anything, this one looks like a hitter-friendly situation at 70 degrees with winds pushing at least slightly out to left field.

I'd bet the over 9.5 if I had to choose, but personally I prefer player props to sides and totals. You can run a walk ladder on both guys and feel pretty good about it.

The league walk rate is way up early on as pitchers shake off the rust. It's usually higher in April, but not to the extent we're looking at this year. And these two pitchers are no strangers to a high walk total.

I don't have a strong conviction pick for you on this game, other than to say I'd bet against Senga for the reasons laid out above.

Pick Ideas: Kodai Senga Over 2.5 BB (+106, BetMGM), Kodai Senga Under 14.5 Outs (+122, DraftKings), Edward Cabrera Over 1.5 BB (-132, Underdog)

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