MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/13: Can Dodgers Beat Brewers on Bullpen Day?
Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Caleb Ferguson
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 13 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Marlins-Phillies and Dodgers-Brewers matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Friday night’s White Sox-Yankees game was interesting for several reasons.
For one, potential superstar Eloy Jimenez hit his first two major-league home runs on the biggest stage in the game:
Exit velocity: 111 mph
Distance: 446 feet
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 13, 2019
However, as you can see, it was also raining. The next batter up, James McCann, hit an opposite-field home run and umpires quickly halted play. A couple of hours later, the game was called in the top of the seventh, and the White Sox were declared 9-6 winners.
If you had a White Sox run line ticket or game total ticket that you were excited to cash, you might have ended up disappointed.
In shortened games, full game moneyline tickets are official once the game is official, but tickets based upon totals, team totals or the game spread aren’t official until the ninth inning.
Tough luck for the 77% of backers holding over tickets in that game … but fortunate for roughly the same percentage of tickets behind the Yankees on the run line.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 7-5 on Friday: 3-3 against first-five innings (F5) moneylines and 3-2 against full game moneylines and 1-0 against totals.
My picks were 5-3, +1.5U. I skipped the full game plays for the Angels and Marlins (both losses) and only missed out on the Royals snapping their losing skid behind 10 strikeouts from Brad Keller.
I was also pleased to see the model steer me toward F5 lines for the Rangers and Mariners rather than their full game lines, as each of their subpar bullpens blew their respective leads.
It was yet another mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I finished 4-3-1 vs. closing lines, up just a few pennies. The biggest miss was by five cents, the biggest gain by six cents.
On Deck for Saturday 4/12
All odds as of early Saturday morning.
The model recommends six full-game moneylines, and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Saturday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Reds and Tigers as the full-game plays. It also likes the Dodgers and Marlins as F5 plays.
I’m immediately going to cross off the Blue Jays. I’ve made no secret about my love for the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays, and although I haven’t seen much value on them in the single-game markets — we’re waiting until they play Boston, Cleveland, Houston and the Yankees — I don’t want to bet against the Rays, either.
Tampa Bay has scored in the first inning in seven straight games, making the Rays an interesting play at roughly +300 on the first-inning run line (-0.5 runs) with Blake Snell starting.
I’m also not particularly excited about betting on Tyson Ross and the Tigers against Minnesota, but I’ll see where the line moves for that game.
The Mets weren’t a play until the line moved nearly 15 cents in their direction. Atlanta is normally a house of horrors for the Mets, but they are in a contrarian spot with their weakest starter (Jason Vargas) going for three straight wins against the Braves.
I’d prefer the Dodgers and Marlins F5 lines to their full-game lines, as the Dodgers expected F5 winning percentage is 1.3% higher than my full-game projection while the Marlins expectancy is about 2.5% higher for F5.
The Dodgers will throw a bullpen day today, and with the F5, you avoid the Brewers strong bullpen. And with the Marlins’ F5 line, you get their best starter (Caleb Smith) and avoid their weak bullpen.
The Marlins are a tough team to bet on because they struggle to score, but they do have good young starting pitching to keep them competitive in most games. And Smith is easily the most polished of the group:
Caleb Smith gave up a 2-run tater to Freddie Freeman on a not-so-terrible FB but came back with this 3 pitch K to Johan Camargo for his 2nd of the game. pic.twitter.com/BXrtEQJxAg
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 7, 2019
The Reds are a solid play today as a divisional underdog at a neutral site in Mexico, and the line has moved their way since open.
Lastly, I played Over 9 in the Padres-Diamondbacks games. This might be a bit of a square play, but I do not like what I have seen from Padres starter Matt Strahm.
Strahm was a potential 2019 breakout candidate, but his velocity is down more than 2 mph over last season on all of his pitches. Even more concerning is his vertical release point is dropping, a bigger indicator that he’s pitching through an injury.
Strahm has surrendered 12 hits and seven runs in 7.2 innings over two starts, with five walks and four strikeouts.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is a 30-year-old rookie signed from the Korean league. He has a five-pitch mix — four-seamer, cutter, sinker, change-up and curveball — to keep hitters off balance, but I watched him struggle through bouts of command issues during his first start against San Diego.
These same two starters faced off in the fifth game of the season, allowing eight runs between them in a 10-3 Diamondbacks victory. I don’t expect either of them to fare any better in their second turn.
Bets (So Far) for April 13
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Cincinnati Reds Game ML (+106)
- Miami Marlins F5 ML (+145)
- New York Mets Game ML (+132)
- LA Dodgers F5 (-0.5 Runs, +105) – would play the F5 ML to -135
- San Diego – Arizona: Over 9 (-120)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/13: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.