Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/1): 2 Over/Unders With Value on Wednesday

Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/1): 2 Over/Unders With Value on Wednesday article feature image

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.

  • Collin Wilson dives deep into umpire data to find betting value on Wednesday's MLB slate.
  • He's playing two totals based on historical trends with the guys behind the dish.

Major League Baseball presents the perfect marriage of advanced stats and trends. I have stated time and again on the Action Colleges podcast that a trend needs 100 iterations before it’s noteworthy. The sample size in football is limited, but there is no shortage of data when betting on the bases.

Plenty of people have asked about my process for betting on MLB on the Action App. One of the factors used to determine plays is the umpire rotation, so several times per week, I’ll break down how I’m betting totals based on the guys behind the dish.

Colleague Danny Donahue had an action-packed piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get tickets to the window.

Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.

Umpire Betting Trends

New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks

Umpire: Paul Emmel

  • Home Record: 221-188, 54% (-5.25 units)
  • Under Record: 176-209, 45.7% (-39.02 units)
  • Total: 8
  • Time: 3:40 p.m. EST
  • Projected Wind: Straight to right field, 6 mph

From the Triple-A Durham Bulls to the Korean League SK Wyverns, Merrill Kelly has had an interesting journey, and he’ll toe the rubber for Arizona on Wednesday. He brings three quality starts and a K/IP rate just shy of 1.0. A WHIP of 1.38 and a high LOB% (left on base rate) indicates there may be some regression coming, though.

Our umpire is Paul Emmel, who has cashed almost 40 units to the over in close to 400 games behind the plate. If his name rings a bell, it’s because Emmel had his own bell rung in a 2016 game thanks to the Angels Jefry Marté.

Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill for the Yankees, which may be good news for the total. Tanaka has given up five home runs in his past 22.2 innings. Specifically, the Angels and White Sox have been able to take advantage of the Yankees pitcher after the first time through the batting order.

Overnight steam has pushed this number down to 8. This is a getaway game with no game scheduled on Thursday for either team, which may result in offensive starters getting a day off. Wait for lineups to be announced before investing in the over, but given the umpire and potential pitching problems, it’s worth strong consideration.

Blue Bet: Over 8

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Umpire: Ron Kulpa

  • Home Record: 238-196, 54% (-3.00 units)
  • Under Record: 233-178, 56.7% (41.95 units)
  • Total: 7
  • Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
  • Projected Wind: Right to left, 9 mph

There is nothing we love more than a Ron Kulpa session behind the dish. The umpire is notoriously known for low-scoring ball games. Kulpa’s reputation followed him into 2019, much to the displeasure of the Houston Astros a few weeks ago.

Jacob deGrom looks to get his form back on track after striking out 16 in his past 9 innings. Many speculated the elbow scare could lead to a season ending injury, but the Mets pitcher insists once his mechanics return, all will be well.

Anthony DeSclafani brings in a decent K/9 rate of his own at 9.95. Mets batters have struggled to make hard contact against righties with a .149 ISO (Isolated Power) and 32.9% in hard-hit percentage. Both of those stats are bottom 5 in MLB in their respective categories.

With a noon game scheduled for Thursday, it only makes sense Ron Kulpa wants to get an early dinner down in Queens on Wednesday.

Blue Bet: Under 7