Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Two Trends Point to Michael Fulmer Success

The Highlights

• Reds-Tigers starters Michael Fulmer and Tyler Mahle have been trending in the right direction.
• Plus, there are two splits that point to Fulmer having a strong outing against Cincinnati on Wednesday afternoon.

Great pitching from Blake Snell and Justin Verlander last night brought home the Rays-Astros Under 7 bet. Now we want to keep it going on this Wednesday in an afternoon game.

2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 48-30-2, +14.8 units
Yesterday's Result: Rays-Astros Under 7, Snell vs. Verlander (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds | O/U: 8.5/9
12:35 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Michael Fulmer (3-5, 4.13 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (5-6, 3.96 ERA)

When it comes to betting on Fulmer, you'd like to have the 25-year-old under two conditions.

Is this start taking place during the daytime? Today's interleague assignment in Cincinnati is indeed an afternoon affair, and that's important considering Fulmer's stellar track record (12-6, 2.50 ERA) under the sun. This year, he's been even better during such hours, holding a 1.94 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in eight starts, spanning 51 innings. In other words, he's literally eating up 6.5 innings each daytime outing with some quality pitching.

We'd also like it to be the first half of the year, which it is, and that's because Fulmer has displayed some glaring Jekyll and Hyde tendencies since his rookie campaign in 2016. In the second half of a season, he's 3-11 with a 4.45 ERA in his career. But before the All-Star Game, Fulmer is 21-13 with a 3.16 ERA.

It's a large enough sample size at this point to continue leaning on both trends (I'm 3-0 on Fulmer over/unders this season, too), plus we'll hope for the righty to continue a strong recent run. He's delivered consecutive seven-inning, one-run outings in his last two starts.

Mahle has also been trending up lately, having allowed only two earned runs total over his last three starts. In the process, his ERA has shrunk almost a full run down to a respectable 3.96. Plus, he hasn't surrendered a home run in his last four starts. I've been backing Mahle since early this season.

This under play boils down to two youngsters moving in the right direction as they face off. Wait until first pitch to see if you can get this under at 9, but even if that doesn't happen, Under 8.5 will be my bet for today. I think we can get it at 9.

Play: UNDER 8.5/9

Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.