The Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals on March 28, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Cubs are favored by -232 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +189 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction
- Nationals vs Cubs Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
My Nationals vs Cubs best bet is under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Cubs Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | +189 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | -232 |
- Nationals vs Cubs spread: Nationals +1.5 (-105), Cubs -1.5 (-115)
- Nationals vs Cubs over/under: 8.5 (-122o / +100u)
- Nationals vs Cubs moneyline: Nationals +189, Cubs -232
Nationals vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Miles Mikolas (WAS) | 2025 Stats | RHP Cade Horton (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-11 | W-L | 11-4 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 4.84 / 5.27 | ERA / xERA | 2.67 / 3.88 |
| 5.03 / 4.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58 / 4.27 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 9.4 | K-BB% | 13.4 |
| 40.2 | GB% | 42.3 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Nationals vs Cubs Preview
Our Bet Labs "Under in March/April, Day Game, Cold" MLB system recommends going with the under after a 14-run game on Thursday in Chicago.
The cold weather is the main factor, but there's also a possible regression for both lineups, particularly the Nationals, who scored 10 in that last game.
They will have to face Cade Horton this afternoon. Horton had an excellent rookie season, posting a 2.67 ERA, and is poised to soon become the ace of the Cubs rotation.
Action PRO projects Horton for 4.4 strikeouts today.
Last year, Washington ranked 18th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, with a 99 mark.
On the other side, Miles Mikolas will get the ball. While he's not pitching duel material after a lackluster 2025 season with the Cardinals, he does get a lot of ground balls (40.2% last year), which is convenient in cold weather, given the reduced carry on fly balls.
Nationals vs Cubs Picks
In the early months of the MLB season (March and April), cold weather (between 1 and 50 degrees) creates ideal conditions for unders.
Pitchers tend to be ahead of hitters at the start of the season, and colder air can suppress offensive production by reducing ball carry.
This MLB system further isolates day games (12 p.m.to 4 p.m.) when shadows and cool starts give pitchers an additional edge — especially as hitters may take longer to get loose.
Taken together, these filters identify a recurring edge that has yielded a positive long-term ROI when consistently betting the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, DraftKings)
