Spring Training games are just around the corner, and rosters are nearly set for the season ahead. As we get a better picture of how each MLB team's lineup and pitching staff will shape up, we can start to think about division races.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for each team's chances of winning the AL West, with the Mariners carrying overwhelming odds to repeat.
You can trade on Major League Baseball and other sporting events, as well as thousands of additional markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here, and have a Kalshi promo code ready if you want to get in on the action.
So, let's dive into some AL West predictions.
AL West Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
Seattle Mariners AL West Odds
The Mariners won the AL West last season for the first time since 2001, not only on the backs of one of the better rotations in baseball, but with an offense that suddenly rose from one of the league's worst to the third-best by wRC+. And while most offseasons are quiet in Seattle, this year was different, as Jerry DiPoto and the front office worked fervently to supplement the roster for a wide-open AL West in 2026.
The lineup lost two key power bats — Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez — to free agency, but DiPoto was able to retain Josh Naylor on a five-year deal, arguably the guy with the best long-term outlook that they were slated to lose. To fill an infield hole, the Mariners acquired leadoff man Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals, adding a valuable on-base threat in front of reigning home run king Cal Raleigh.
Most of the pitching staff is expected to return, as the super rotation of Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Bryce Miller is healthy for now. The only major pitching addition was the acquisition of left-hander Jose A. Ferrer from Washington, who gives the Mariners another option behind Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash at the back end of the bullpen.
Houston Astros AL West Odds
It's undeniable that the Astros' dynasty is over, but that doesn't mean the team won't stay competitive. Houston challenged for the AL West last season and came away with an 87-75 record, just missing the playoffs via tiebreaker in a stacked American League. While the Astros didn't do anything flashy this offseason, Dana Brown made a few mid-level moves to bolster the club.
The highlight of the winter was likely signing Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a three-year deal in a depleted market, giving Houston some much-needed rotation depth in the wake of losing Framber Váldez to free agency. Brown also brought in young righty Mike Burrows, who has good stuff but hadn't carved out a role with the Pirates, from Pittsburgh. Pencil those two and KBO returnee Ryan Weiss in behind Cy Young contender Hunter Brown in the rotation, and suddenly the injury risks of Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier seems like less of a big deal.
The lineup is a little more concerning, especially considering the health questions that constantly surround Yordan Álvarez and Carlos Correa. However, if Jeremy Peña can build on his stellar 2025 at the dish and the other platoons work out, Houston could be potent enough to challenge the Mariners.
Texas Rangers AL West Odds
The Rangers have seemingly done nothing but crash and burn since winning the World Series in 2023, but the amount of talent on their roster prevents them from being totally counted out of this race.
Former No. 4 pick Wyatt Langford built on his rookie campaign with a 4.1 fWAR in 2025 and should improve further in 2026. Corey Seager still put up 4.0 fWAR despite missing nearly half the season, and both Evan Carter and Josh Smith showed flashes of promise at points throughout the season.
Perhaps Chris Young should've focused more on bolstering the lineup, but decided instead to double down on run prevention, swinging a blockbuster trade for left-hander MacKenzie Gore to provide a younger presence in a veteran-laden rotation that includes Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom at the top. Young also seemingly talked veteran setup man Chris Martin out of retirement after the righty posted a 2.98 ERA over 42 1/3 innings in 2025. He'll return for his age-40 season in 2026. It will take a lot going right for the Rangers to compete for the division crown, but it's not impossible.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
