We have a full slate of MLB action on Friday evening, which means there's plenty of betting value on the board.
This piece will go beyond your regular way of approaching the market, though.
I have three candidates to hit a dinger in our Action Network MLB Friday Night Lights edition of home run props.
Friday MLB Home Run Prop #1
Willson Contreras
@ Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
This weekend’s series in the Bronx is a crucial one for the Red Sox, who currently sit at the bottom of the AL East and rank last in the American League in runs scored.
Willson Contreras, however, isn't the reason for the team’s offensive struggles. The veteran slugger leads Boston in home runs (12), ISO (.232) and SLG% (.527), and has been locked in at the plate for the last two months.
After going yard on Thursday against Baltimore, the 34-year-old is in a great spot to keep the momentum rolling on Friday in a matchup against the Yankees and southpaw Ryan Weathers (1.55 HR/9).
Contreras has been unreal when facing left-handers this season. He's gone deep four times already and owns a .593 SLG against lefties. Meanwhile, his .296 ISO against that split is the 10th-best mark among qualified major league hitters.
While it's been a mostly solid debut season for Weathers in New York, the 26-year-old is still susceptible to the long ball, especially at home. Seven of his 11 home runs surrendered have come at Yankee Stadium. Also, it's worth noting that nine of those homers have been conceded against right-handed bats.
Weathers has been taken deep five times in his last three starts and will certainly have his hands full keeping the ball in the yard against Contreras.
Friday MLB Home Run Prop #2
Jordan Walker
Vs. Reds (8:15 p.m. ET)
In baseball, the development of a prospect can be anything but linear, and Jordan Walker is a great reminder of that. The burgeoning slugger is off to a tremendous start to the 2026 campaign despite being written off by most of the league following two straight abysmal seasons in St. Louis.
The blossoming power numbers have improved the most for Walker, who ranks in the top 20 among qualified major league hitters in ISO (.247) and fourth in the National League in home runs (15).
The biggest underlying metric to attribute this success to is ground-ball rate. The 24-year-old has lowered that number to 41.1% so far this year after flirting with a 50% mark throughout his first three seasons with the Cardinals.
Walker is also increasing his quality of contact in 2026, raising his barrel rate to 14.1% after struggling to climb past 10% during his first three major-league seasons.
Walker and his squad get a juicy matchup on Friday against the Reds, who have allowed the second-most home runs in baseball (88) and will be trotting out 29-year-old sinker-baller Brady Singer (2.82 HR/9).
Singer, who ranks third in baseball with 16 home runs allowed, has been a shell of his former All-Star self this season. The right-hander surrendered 11 bombs in the month of May alone and has been taken deep multiple times on three straight occasions.
Much to the Singer’s chagrin, Walker is destroying sinkers in 2026, owning a 58.5% hard-hit rate against the pitch, in addition to a .526 xSLG.
Singer throws his sinker to right-handed bats 51% of the time and could be in store for another rough night if he can’t find a different way to retire St. Louis’s newest superstar.
Friday MLB Home Run Prop #3
Ketel Marte
Vs. Nationals (9:40 p.m. ET)
Although it was a sluggish start to the veteran’s 12th major-league season, Marte is once again reminding people why he’s the best second baseman in the game.
The three-time All-Star put up outstanding numbers in the month of May, tallying 12 extra-base hits, 22 RBI and a .295/.345/.524 slash line, while his .307 xBA and .521 xSLG remain among the highest marks in baseball.
With two home runs already in June, the 32-year-old is up to a team-high 11 dingers on the year and is a huge reason why the Diamondbacks trail the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers by just 6.5 games in the division.
To no one’s surprise, the switch-hitting Marte is once again raking against left-handed pitching, boasting a .551 SLG and .261 ISO in 2026 when batting from the right side.
With four homers on the year against southpaws, Marte could add to that mark on Friday in a matchup with Nationals journeyman starter Foster Griffin (1.75 HR/9). The 30-year-old left-hander is starting to regress as the season rolls along; he conceded eight home runs in the month of May, while seven of those blasts occurred over his last four starts.
Furthermore, Griffin has allowed 10 of his 13 home runs at the mercy of right-handed bats, making Marte a prime candidate to go deep tonight at Chase Field.
If Griffin escapes his battles with Marte unscathed, the Nationals' bullpen shouldn’t be considered one to inspire hope. That unit holds a 4.80 ERA and has allowed a whopping 44 home runs, which is far and away the worst mark in baseball.
It’s something to consider given that Marte has notched five of his 11 bombs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings so far this season, including a walk-off against the Dodgers on Thursday.
