Happy Wednesday, and I've got some bangers.
Here are my 4 favorite MLB home run picks today for Wednesday, June 17.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Blue Jays vs Red Sox
At this point in his career, Max Scherzer might be the worst pitcher in the league and the best matchup for power. He's allowing a 3.68 HR/9 this season after allowing a 2.01 HR/9 last season. I have no idea why he's still getting starts, but I'm going to take advantage.
This ballpark isn't great for power, and the weather should be right about average, but I'm still getting massive value on several Red Sox players.
I have the true odds on Willson Contreras around +320, making this a great bet.
Pick: Willson Contreras Home Run
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White Sox vs Yankees
Carlos Rodon has been having a great season and has suppressed power well, but he's due for some pretty heavy regression. He's around a splits-neutral pitcher and grades out as a matchup that is slightly below average for both lefty and righty power.
This ballpark is a bit of an upgrade for lefty power, and I have the true odds on Colson Montgomery around +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Colson Montgomery Home Run
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Rockies vs Cubs
I know this is a lefty/lefty matchup, but Sean Sullivan grades out as close to splits neutral and is a plus matchup for lefty power.
The weather in Chicago should be a big plus for hitting, with winds blowing out at 13 MPH.
PCA has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball recently, and I have the true odds on this home run prop around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run
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Pirates vs Athletics
Braxton Ashcraft has been great this season, but he's been an above-average matchup for lefty power, allowing a 1.24 HR/9 despite playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.
This ballpark is a massive downgrade for Ashcraft, and the weather should be great for hitting, with temps in the low-80s and wind blowing out at 11 MPH.
Nick Kurtz has been on a tear recently, and I have the true odds on this home run prop around +240, making this a great bet.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run
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