Our MLB slate on Thursday has only seven games, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET with Rockies vs. Nationals and finishing with Diamondbacks vs. Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.
But don't fret, as we have bangers for the entire day, with a couple of them in the afternoon matchup between the Orioles and Cardinals.
Read on for my 4 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:15 PM | |
| 2:15 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 9:45 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick
Jordan Walker gets a plus spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
Orioles starter Trevor Rogers hasn't been a bad pitcher this season, but he's allowed an above-average 1.21 HR/9 to righties and is due for some negative regression.
Walker is far too good to be priced this high in an above-average spot, and I have the true odds for the Cardinals RF at around +500.
Pick: Jordan Walker Home Run
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Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction, Pick
Pete Alonso has been on a tear, and I don't know why the books keep pricing him like this, but I'm not going to argue.
Gordon Graceffo is starting for the Cardinals, and it may be a bullpen game, which makes this matchup slightly below average.
This ballpark isn't great, but the price more than makes up for it.
I have the true odds for the Orioles 1B/DH at around +425.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
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Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Pick
Yordan Alvarez gets a great spot, and although this game could be postponed, I'm still rolling the dice.
Yankees starter Gerrit Cole has been hammered by lefty power this season, allowing a 1.51 HR/9.
Yordan has been a little cold lately, but he's still one of the top power hitters in the league, and this ballpark is one of the best in MLB for lefty power.
I have the true odds for the Astros DH at around +230.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run
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Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction, Pick
Rafael Devers has been on an absolute tear recently, with a homer in each of the last three games and seven dingers in August.
He gets a good spot against Diamondbacks SP Jose Cabrera, who has been a gas can for lefty power this season (1.74 HR/9).
This ballpark is one of the worst in the league for power, but even factoring that in, these odds are a bit too high.
I have the true odds for the Giants DH/1B at around +420.
Pick: Rafael Devers Home Run
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