For Monday, September 15, I'm on four MLB home-runs props: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Tyler O'Neill and Christian Walker.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, September 15
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:35 p.m. | |
| 8:35 p.m. | |
| 8:40 p.m. | |
| 9:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 15
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+425)
at Rays (SP: RHP Joe Boyle)
I don't like to target Vlad too often, but this spot grades out great for him. Vlad has a ton of pop but isn't a huge fly-ball hitter, and opposing pitcher Joe Boyle gives up a lot of fly balls.
Boyle owns a career 45% fly-ball rate to righties, and this ballpark is a plus for power. The weather should be good for hitting, with temps in the low-80s. I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Daulton Varsho (+401)
at Rays (SP: RHP Joe Boyle)
We don't have a huge sample size of opposing pitcher Joe Boyle in the majors, but he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power, with a career 45% fly-ball rate and 36.4% hard-contact rate. With that short right-field porch, this ballpark is a big upgrade for lefty power, and the weather should good, with temps in the low-80s.
Varsho has been great this season, with 18 homers in 60 games, and I have the true odds here around +350.
Tyler O'Neill (+333)
at White Sox (SP: RHP Sean Burke)
The odds over at Bally Bet are far too high on O'Neill. He has been injured for a large portion of the season, but in the last 162 games, he has 40 bombs. The White Sox are rolling with Tyler Gilbert as an opener and Sean Burke following for long relief, both of which are a plus matchup for O'Neill.
Burke has given up a high 1.48 HR/9 to righties this season, and with a 46% fly-ball rate and 37.9% hard-contact rate, he's due for some negative regression. I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Christian Walker (+475)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jack Leiter)
Leiter has been solid at suppressing power to righties this season, but he's due for some pretty heavy regression. Leiter owns a large 45.5% fly ball rate and a 34.8% hard contact rate this season, grading out as a pitcher who allows around 1.3 HR/9 to righties.
The ballpark is good for righty power with the Crawford boxes, and Walker has been a good power hitter in the second half of the season with 11 bombs in 53 games. I have the true odds on Walker around +400 today, making this a great EV bet.
