For Monday, September 8, I'm on four MLB home run props: Juan Soto, Bret Baty, Jo Adell, and Rafael Devers.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, September 8
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 6:45 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 8
Juan Soto(+350)
at Phillies (SP: RHP Aaron Nola)
This is an ideal spot to back Mets lefty power bats, as the odds are far too generous. Aaron Nola has historically been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and in 2025 he’s struggled even more, surrendering a massive 2.76 HR/9. While some regression is expected, his high fly-ball rate and hard-contact profile make him a prime target for lefty home run props.
With the ballpark serving as a strong upgrade for lefty power and inflated pricing on these odds, I project true value closer to +250, creating one of the best MLB betting edges on the board today.
Brett Baty (+850)
at Phillies (SP: RHP Carlos Aaron Nola)
Continuing with the Mets' lefties, Brett Baty stands out as a prime home run prop target today, given his strikeouts to his at-bats against Aaron Nola. While Nola has long struggled against left-handed hitters, this season has been particularly rough, as highlighted above.
His high fly-ball and hard-contact rates only strengthen the case for lefty power, and this ballpark plays perfectly into that profile. With the odds sitting far higher than they should be on Baty, I project true value closer to +550.
Jo Adell (+260)
vs Twins (SP: RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson)
Jo Adell is in a prime matchup tonight against Simeon Woods Richardson, who has struggled badly against right-handed power this season. With seven 1.68 HR/9 allowed, plus an inflated 53% fly-ball rate and 40% hard-contact rate, Richardson profiles as one of the best pitchers to target for home run props.
While the ballpark doesn’t give a huge boost to power and the weather looks neutral, Adell’s form makes him impossible to ignore. He’s been the hottest bat in the Angels’ lineup, going deep in 5 of his last 7 games.
Even after exiting yesterday’s game due to nausea, if he’s in the lineup, I project his true odds closer to +220, creating strong value on this MLB prop bet.
Rafael Devers (+400)
vs Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Nabil Crismatt)
Rafael Devers is in a strong spot tonight against Nabil Crismatt, who profiles as a vulnerable starter despite average career numbers. Transitioning from the bullpen, Crismatt has shown signs of giving up more power, especially to left-handed hitters, with a 1.23 HR/9 allowed in a limited sample this season.
While the ballpark isn’t the most favorable for home runs, Devers has the power to overcome it and has been in excellent form with four homers in his last 7 games. I project his true odds around +350, which makes this an attractive value play on one of MLB’s premier left-handed sluggers.
