For Thursday, September 18, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, September 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 18
Riley Greene (+475)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Tanner Bibee)
I have no idea why Riley Greene is priced this high given the spot, but I'm not going to argue. Opposing pitcher Tanner Bibee has been a plus matchup for lefty power this season, giving up a high 1.38 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball numbers. The weather should be a plus for hitting, with WeatherEdge giving this game a 12.1% increase to homers. I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Spencer Torkelson (+525)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Tanner Bibee)
Spencer Torkelson is priced far too high given the matchup. Opposing pitcher Tanner Bibee has been a plus matchup for righty power this season, giving up a high 1.47 HR/9. The weather should be good for hitting, with WeatherEdge giving this game a 12.1% increase to homers. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Aaron Judge (+240)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Cade Povich)
The righties are in a great spot today and are priced a bit too high. Cade Povich has been a big plus matchup to righties this season (1.49 HR/9) and the weather today is a plus with a 10.6% increase, according to WeatherEdge.
Aaron Judge has been one of the best home-run hitters in the league this season, and there's no way he should be priced this high given the matchup. I have the true odds around +200 today, making this a great EV bet.
Giancarlo Stanton (+310)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Cade Povich)
The righties are in a great spot today and are priced a bit too high. Cade Povich has been a big plus matchup to righties this season (1.49 HR/9) and the weather today is a plus with a 10.6% increase, according to WeatherEdge.
Giancarlo Stanton is one of the best home-run hitters in the league, and I have the true odds around +250 today, making this a great EV bet.
