For Tuesday, July 22, I'm on five MLB home run props: Ben Rice (against the Blue Jays), Pete Alonso (against the Angels), Bobby Witt Jr. (against the Cubs), Nick Kurtz (against the Rangers), and Rafael Devers (against the Braves).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, July 22
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
| 8:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 22
Ben Rice (+500)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Max Scherzer)
Now 40 years old and nearing the end of his career, Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer isn't the same pitcher he used to be. He's struggled heavily with lefties this season, striking them out at a low 14.3% clip while allowing 3.00 HR/9.
Additionally, he's been a big plus matchup for lefty power over the last few years. Toronto has been one of the best ballparks in the league (Rogers Centre) for lefty power this season, ranking fifth according to Statcast.
Yankees slugger Ben Rice has been good this season, and his underlying numbers show he's due for some positive regression. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Pete Alonso (+290)
vs. Angels (SP: RHP Kyle Hendricks)
Angels starter Kyle Hendricks doesn't really do anything well at this point in his career. He's been crushed by righties this season (2.23 HR/9), and while he's been better at suppressing power to lefties, he's due for some large negative regression with his low K rate and high fly-ball rate.
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso hasn't hit a ton of homers this season, but the underlying numbers have been the best of his career, and he's due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds here around +230.
Rafael Devers (+330)
at Braves (SP: RHP Davis Daniel)
We don't have a big sample size on Braves starter Davis Daniel in the majors, but he's allowed an above-average fly-ball rate and hard-contact rate thus far and grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power.
Truist Park is a big upgrade for the Giants' Rafael Devers, and the weather should be good for hitting, with high temps and humidity and wind blowing out at 6 mph.
I have the true odds here around +250.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+400)
at Cubs (SP: LHP Matthew Boyd)
Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd is pitching well this season, but he's due for some pretty heavy negative regression, with a 2.34 ERA but a 3.85 xFIP.
He's allowed a near 50% fly-ball rate this season to righties with an average K rate, so his 1.09 HR/9 should be due for some negative regression.
Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best hitters in baseball, and despite his great underlying numbers, he hasn't been hitting a ton of homers this season due to his pitcher-friendly home ballpark.
Wrigley Field is an upgrade for righty power, and the weather should be a slight plus for hitting.
I have the true odds here around +350.
Nick Kurtz (+400)
at Rangers (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last few months, and these odds are too high.
Rangers ace Jacob deGrom has been good against righties this season, but he's struggled against lefties, giving up high hard-contact and fly-ball numbers and allowing a 1.37 HR/9.
Globe Life Field is a downgrade for Kurtz, but the value is still here.
I have the true odds around +350.
