The Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 13, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Brewers are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +145 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction
- Phillies vs Brewers Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
My Phillies vs Brewers best bet is on Milwaukee to score five or more runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -175 |
- Phillies vs Brewers moneyline: Phillies +145, Brewers -175
- Phillies vs Brewers over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Phillies vs Brewers spread: Phillies +1.5 (-150), Brewers -1.5 (+125)
Phillies vs Brewers Polymarket MLB Odds
Phillies vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) | Stat | Shane Drohan (LHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 5.86 / 4.35 | ERA / xERA | 3.11 / 3.03 |
| 4.21 / 3.73 | FIP / xFIP | 2.71 / 3.61 |
| 16.0 | K-BB% | 16.9 |
| 41.5 | GB% | 45.7 |
| .339 | BABIP | .279 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 101 | Location+ | 108 |
Phillies vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies came to Milwaukee as winners of seven of their last nine games in a matchup of reigning NL division winners. The Phillies will need to quickly shake off last night's game, as they fell 6-0 and were limited to one baserunner. That lone baserunner was Kyle Schwarber, which perhaps should not be too much of a surprise.
Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead with 24 home runs after a big first inning from Yordan Alvarez. He is also 10th with a .930 OPS, which actually increases to .994 against left-handed pitchers.
Though many managers bring in lefties to neutralize Schwarber (and usually later Bryce Harper), Schwarber has had a higher OPS against left-handers since the start of the 2024 season. He may get at least two plate appearances against another one tonight.
Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies, and this season has been a rocky one for him. He has allowed three earned runs in six of his last nine starts and four earned runs in five of them, which has resulted in a 5.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Despite his struggles, he still may be a bit unlucky as his expected FIP, ERA, and SIERA are all 4.33 or lower, at least 1.5 runs lower than his actual ERA.
He has still been tough on right-handed batters, limiting them to a .717 OPS with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 1.5% walk rate. However, left-handed hitters have a 13% walk rate with six home runs off him, a .311 batting average, and .911 OPS. Nola has dominated the Brewers when pitching at home in his career, but he has a 4.60 ERA against them in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Brewers' pitching development rivals any team in baseball as Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff have starred for them in recent years, among others.
However, the Phillies would have preferred to face any of them instead of Jacob Misiorowski last night. A third-inning single from Schwarber prevented a perfect game, but not a "Maddux," as Misiorowski pitched a complete-game shutout with 15 strikeouts on just 95 pitches.
The Phillies will certainly be happier to see Shane Drohan on the mound, even though he is turning into another Brewers' success story. Drohan has pitched to a 3.11 ERA and 3.05 expected ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning. He ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected ERA, expected batting average, chase rate, and walk rate.
The Brewers have typically let Drohan open for the first few innings before replacing him with a bulk reliever like Chad Patrick. However, they let him go 6 and 1/3 innings in his last start in Colorado, so he may have earned a longer leash for himself tonight.
Misiorowski stole the show last night, but he also got six runs of support from his offense. Jake Bauers dealt the big blow with a three-run home run in the fifth inning, while Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras all added a hit and either RBI or run scored.
The Brewers average 5.4 runs per game at home, but they have been particularly hot of late. In June, they are averaging 8.1 runs per game with a .920 OPS, which has helped them win seven of their last 11 games.
Catchers William Contreras and Gary Sanchez have home runs off Nola, but it could be the left-handed bats that shine. Christian Yelich is 11-for-39 (.282) with four extra base hits, including a home run against him. Brice Turang is 4-for-12 with two RBI against him, while Bauers has homered in three of his last five games.
Phillies vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
While Nola has been a bit unlucky this season, the results still speak for themselves. In seven of his 13 starts this season, the opponent scored five runs or more, much of the damage against him. He is certainly part of the equation.
I'm mainly backing the Brewers' offense tonight, which has been red-hot.
The Brewers have certainly benefited from a few hitter-friendly environments, as they were at Coors Field and Las Vegas Ballpark on their road trip. However, they scored six runs back home last night, which was the fourth time in their last five games with five runs or more runs, averaging 7.8 per game in that span.
Considering they average over five runs at home, we only need an average game from them offensively at the plate.
Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105, BetMGM)
