For Tuesday, September 16, I'm on four MLB home run props: Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, September 16
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 16
Daulton Varsho (+435)
at Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
While I prefer targeting righties vs. Pepiot, he's still a plus matchup for lefty power with a 46% fly ball rate and a 34% hard contact rate. Varsho has been in a little slump recently, but the overall season numbers are great.
The ballpark is a big upgrade for lefty power with that short right field porch and the weather is good for hitting today with temps in the low 80s during gametime.
George Springer (+375)
at Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
Springer is in a great spot today and the odds are a bit too high. Pepiot isn't a bad pitcher, but he has reverse splits and struggles with righty power.
He owns a 1.74 HR/9 on the season to go along with heavy fly ball and hard contact numbers. The ballpark and weather are a plus for hitting today.
Giancarlo Stanton (+320)
at Twins (SP: RHP Zebby Matthews)
Zebby has been much more susceptible to lefty power in his career, giving up a massive 2.45 HR/9. While he's only given up a 1.04 HR/9 in his career to righties, he's due for some large negative regression and the underlying numbers are similar to both sides of the plate.
Stanton has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season when healthy and still has the highest swing speed in the league. The weather is good over in Minnesota today.
Cody Bellinger (+420)
at Twins (SP: RHP Zebby Matthews)
Going hard on the Yankees as the spot is a great one. We don't have a huge sample size of Zebby in the majors, but he's been absolutely crushed by lefty power giving up a massive 2.45 HR/9.
While his HR/FB rate is due for some positive regression, he still grades out as a great matchup for lefty power with a 42.5% fly ball and 40% hard contact rate.
The weather is good for hitting today with temps in the mid 80s and a 10% increase to HRs according to WeatherEdge.
