For Tuesday, September 9, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Walker, Colson Montgomery and Alex Bregman.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, September 9
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 9
Giancarlo Stanton (+375)
vs Tigers (SP: RHP Casey Mize)
Giancarlo Stanton, when healthy, has been one of the best home run hitters in the league this season, and he's been hammering the ball of late.
Meanwhile, Casey Mize has been a plus matchup for righty power this season, allowing a 1.52 HR/9. The weather is slightly below average, but the odd are far too high on Stanton. I have the true odds on Stanton at around +300, making this a great EV bet.
Christian Walker (+550)
at Blue Jays (SP: RHP Shane Bieber)
Opposing pitcher Shane Bieber has been great so far over three starts, but he's bound to regress. This is a good ballpark for power, and Christian Walker has been great since the All-Star Break, with 10 homers through 47 games to go along with elite hard-contact and fly-ball numbers.
Overall, this is a slightly below-average spot, but these odds more than make up for it. I have the true odds nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Colson Montgomery (+480)
vs Tampa Bay Rays (SP: RHP Adrian Houser)
The odds on Colson Montgomery today are a bit too high given the spot. It looks like Adrian Houser is likely starting for the Rays, which would be a slightly below-average matchup. Houser has allowed slightly below-average homers to lefties this season and in his career, but the ballpark is a big upgrade for lefty power.
The wind is blowing in slightly, and the weather is a little cold, but this is still a ballpark upgrade given the short right-field porch. Montgomery has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, and given the good spot, I have the true odds around +400, making this a great EV bet.
Alex Bregman (+450)
at Athletics (LHP: RHP Jeffrey Springs)
This is one of my favorite bets on the board. This ballpark is a big plus for power, and the weather won't be hot, but with the wind blowing out at 6 mph, the ball should still fly. Opposing pitcher Jeffrey Springs has been a gas can for righty power this season, allowing a high 1.68 HR/9.
Alex Bregman isn't a huge power guy, but given the good spot, I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
