We've got a decently sized 12-game slate on Monday.
I found three picks, though one is only available in a smaller book, and another is likely to be postponed.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 19, 2025
Reds vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Nick Lodolo
The most significant factor in this pick is BetRivers' (and other Kambi books') off-market line of +110, with the rest of the market at even money or worse.
I have this projected close to 50/50, so we need that plus money to make the bet worthwhile.
Both pitchers have first-time through the order xFIPs in the mid-fours, but both lineups have below-average platoon splits against the side they're facing.
If you don't have access to any books with the +110 line, I'm also showing slight value on the Reds team YRFI at +230,
Mariners vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Davis Martin
The Mariners are a top-five offense (both overall and against righties) when using park-adjusted factors, but they happen to play their home games at the best pitcher's park in baseball, which suppresses their numbers.
They travel to Rate Field in Chicago on Monday, which has a slightly pitcher-friendly Park Factor but is nowhere near their home ballpark. The difference between the two stadiums is about 13% in favor of hitters.
The weather also favors the bats, another point for the offenses.
Seattle is taking on Davis Martin, who has a 4.62 xFIP his first time through the order as a starter, and underlying numbers much worse than his 3.65 ERA.
The same logic about Seattle bats can be applied reverse to their pitchers. Luis Castillo has a 2.65 ERA at home and a 5.87 ERA on the road this season, enough to take the full-game YRFI instead of the Mariners team.
Guardians vs. Twins NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs. Bailey Ober
The overwhelmingly likely outcome is that this game doesn't play, but if it does, the weather will give pitchers an extreme boost.
On top of that, Logan Allen's first-time-through-the-order ERA is 1.50, and Bailey Ober's is a solid 3.79.
Minnesota is on the wrong side of their platoon splits against Allen and without their best bat (Byron Buxton) at the top of the lineup, so there's minimal risk.
The Guardians are slightly more likely to score, but it's not a significant concern given the conditions.
I'm taking this one on the off chance they start this game before the worst of the weather hits, possibly with the start moved up. It's not super likely, but it's worth a shot.
