I had another 1-1 day yesterday, as I continue to tread water this week.
Let's break out of that with some winners on Wednesday, as I have three picks across the slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 11, 2025
Braves vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Chad Patrick vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Both Chad Patrick and Spencer Schwellenbach have solid overall numbers this season, but more importantly, for our purposes, they're even better early on.
The rookie Patrick has an excellent 2.62 ERA as a starter this season. His first time through the order, that number drops to just 1.30. Schwellenbach has similar splits, with his 3.24 ERA overall dropping to 2.10 his first time around.
With these teams ranking 19th and 25th, respectively, against right handed pitchers by wRC+, and Milwaukee being a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark, that's enough to take the chance even with some solid bats at the top of both lineups.
Nationals vs. Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. David Peterson
I really wanted to like some version of the Mets team YRFI here, including possibly their first inning moneyline.
However, books have priced those bets too aggressively, with the best possible version being +200 for their first inning moneyline.
That's roughly the odds I have of the Mets to score a run in the first inning, which obviously doesn't guarantee the inning goes to them.
I'm getting enough equity from the Nationals against David Peterson to push this into regular YRFI territory. While Peterson is a tough matchup, the top of the Nationals' order is fairly strong.
Plus, we have perfect hitting weather in New York on Wednesday, with the conditions boosting scoring by more than 15%, according to Weather Edge.
Yankees vs. Royals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Clarke Schmidt vs. Kris Bubic
While it would be an exaggeration to say I don't really care about the pitchers in this matchup, it's almost the case.
Kris Bubic has been excellent this season with a 1.43 ERA — though his expected stats are roughly double that — but he's also a lefty taking on the Yankees.
New York hits left-handed pitching better than any team in the league, and that's largely driven by top-of-the-order hitters Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt.
Judge has video-game numbers against lefties this season, with a .417 batting average and one home run every six at-bats. It's 90 degrees with the wind blowing out to left field in Kansas City, a stadium that already boosts scoring by about 8% over league average.
The Royals have the easier pitching matchup against Schmidt, who has a 4.04 ERA and similar underlying numbers this season. They obviously also benefit from the excellent field conditions.
With the juice on the YRFI so low at FanDuel, that makes the game line my preferred option. But I'm also taking a sprinkle on the Yankees' team line at +225 on DraftKings — a perfect spot to use any bonus bets you may have earned from their promotion yesterday.
