The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 3, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Brewers are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
- Brewers vs Cubs Pick: Lean Cubs ML (-102) and Under 8.5 (-114)
My Brewers vs Cubs best bets are Chicago to win outright and Under 8.5 total runs today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Cubs Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -116 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -102 |
- Brewers vs Cubs moneyline: Brewers -116, Cubs -102
- Brewers vs Cubs over/under: 8.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Brewers vs Cubs spread: Brewers -1.5 (+142), Cubs +1.5 (-172)
Brewers vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Kevin Gausman (RHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 8-11 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 2.48 / 2.73 | ERA / xERA | 4.52 / 3.92 |
| 3.31 / 3.27 | FIP / xFIP | 3.61 / 3.76 |
| 25.2 | K-BB% | 17.2 |
| 28.6 | GB% | 37.9 |
| .218 | BABIP | .310 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 107 | Location+ | 107 |
Brewers vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Logan Henderson has five straight quality starts, allowing exactly three total runs over his last three, while completing seven innings in two of his last three.
The Brewers starter has a 25.2 K-BB% on the season with only two starts below a 20 K-BB%. His hard-hit rate is below 40% (38.4%), and although his 2.48 ERA is inflated by a .218 BABIP and 88.5 LOB%, he has only one estimator above 3.3 (3.85 dERA).
There’s just one tiny problem. Henderson has just a 28.6 GB%. He is generating popups at a 14% rate on fly balls, but he’s also allowing 8.6% Barrels/BBE, which is league average. The fact that he’s allowing contact at all on only 65% of plate appearances is great, but we’re talking about Wrigley here.
BARTOLO’s projected lineup for the Cubs is mauling the ball. They average a 126 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ and .178 ISO vs RHP, and 132 wRC+ over the last month.
The projected Milwaukee defense for the batted balls Henderson does allow that stay in the park is about average (2 FRV).
The Brewers do have a quality bullpen with the top ERA in the league over the last month (2.22), but also 9th-best estimators (3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA). BARTOLO ranks them 2nd best in the league (3.54 wFIP).
Kevin Gausman has allowed 16 runs in 28 innings as a Cub. He’s allowed 14 runs in 14 innings in three of those starts, but just two in 14 innings in the other two.
His BABIP has dropped as a Cub (.293), which is expected with the Cubs allowing a .272 mark as a team, but he’s also stranded only 66.7% of his runners with all five barrels leaving the park.
Yes, you read that right. More barrels than home runs, and that extra non-barreled home run was allowed away from Wrigley.
A key point is that his K-BB has risen to 19% with the Cubs, while his contact profile has remained better than average.
Gausman may have a 4.52 ERA this season, but no other single estimator reaches four.
The projected Milwaukee lineup is a challenge, averaging a 107 wRC+ on the road, 113 wRC+ vs RHP and 102 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but the Cubs have the best defense in the league, with their projected eight behind Gausman sitting at 51 FRV.
The Chicago bullpen has a 4.91 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.21 SIERA since the deadline, the 22nd-best mark in the league, and is only a little bit better via BARTOLO’s rankings (19th with a 3.98 wFIP).
Regardless, the Brewers have about a half-run pitching edge from starter through bullpens, at least without knowing which relievers will be deployed.
However, the Cubs bring all that back with perhaps the best offense in the league right now and the best defense without argument. They also get a little boost from being at home.
Brewers vs Cubs Picks, Betting Analysis
The weather could be an issue here. Not only is there a threat of rain in the early forecast, but weather sources also disagree on the impact, ranging from a 10% run suppression to a 6% run boost.
Until we get more clarity on the weather, I’ll have to keep my plays here to leans. Those leans would be the Cubs and Under 8.5.
I’d rather risk missing a playable line than playing the wrong one, but I will post in the app if and when these become plays with more weather clarity.
For those who want to be more aggressive, FanDuel is currently at 8.5 (-114), and most books are also below -110 on the Cubs as of this writing.
Picks: Lean Cubs (-102, 0.5u | Bet to -108), Under 8.5 (-114, 0.57u | Bet through 8.5)
