College football will be the focus today, Thursday, September 3, but we still have a nearly full slate of all-day Major League Baseball action.
We've got 3 MLB Best Bets Today, including picks for Giants vs Pirates, Brewers vs Cubs, and Cardinals vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs Pirates Best Bet
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the total for this Giants vs. Pirates matchup.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
BARTOLO projects the Giants for 4.27 runs and the Pirates for 5.06 today, which would bring the total over the line.
Zerillo's model gives this option a 3.4% edge on the current 8.5 line.
The last three Pirates games have all produced nine or more runs, and two of those matchups were against this same opponent, including a 13-12 victory on Tuesday.
Plus, BARTOLO projects run-scoring favorable edges thanks to the umpire and weather conditions, as the wind will be blowing out at 8 MPH.
The Giants will send Blade Tidwell to the mound, and he got pummeled in his last outing, allowing six runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks.
The Pirates announced reliever Lake Bachar as the starter and will mostly depend on their bullpen.
These are two of the hottest offenses over the last seven days, with Pittsburgh ranking 7th and San Francisco 9th in wRC+ in that span.
Let's go with the over on Thursday.
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Pick: Over 8.5 (-120 or Better)
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Brewers vs Cubs Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system focuses exclusively on Cubs home games, where wind direction is a major scoring variable.
When wind blows in or across (in or from sides) and total opens between eight and 13, unders become highly valuable.
Wrigley is uniquely sensitive to weather due to field orientation and no dome, making it the premier ballpark for wind-based betting edges.
The weather report is calling for around 8 MPH breezes heading across the field for this game:
It's also nice when negative Wrigley Winds match up with an elite starting pitching matchup, triggering another Action PRO betting system based on high strikeout pitchers:
Here's a breakdown of those pitchers from BARTOLO:
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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It’s no secret or debate that a healthy Tarik Skubal is a top-three pitcher in this league. His 2.84 ERA aligns with estimators, none of which reach three.
It’s short and simple.
Quinn Mathews is an interesting young arm, but not nearly in the class of a Tarik Skubal.
Through four starts, he’s registered a competent 13.5 K-BB%, allowing just a single barrel with a 33.3 HardHit%.
We don’t know if any of this is sustainable yet, and it’s a bit of a concern that his pitch modeling is in on the low end of his indicators, with a 4.43 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+. By either measure, the command has been a bit better than the stuff.
If we go by performance, his indicators have sat around four, with contact-inclusive ones superior to contact-neutral measurements. If we abide by projections, it’s closer to averaging four and a third runs per nine.
It’s about a run and a half starting pitching edge for the Dodgers, who also project for a 13 FRV edge and a bullpen edge that widens by BARTOLO ratings, ranking the Dodgers best in the league (3.54 wFIP) and the Cardinals 17th (3.95 wFIP), over last 30 day estimators, where the Dodgers have the Cardinals by a little more than one-third of a run in the last 30 days.
I’ve held offenses for last for a reason.
It’s no question it’s the weaker Dodgers split. Even with Will Smith back, their projected lineup averages just a 103 wRC+ and .149 ISO vs LHP, though they’ve been slumping overall as well, with the same lineup averaging just a 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The Cardinals are banged up. Being without their two elite glove middle infielders drops them from one of the best defenses in the league to a net negative in FRV.
However, it’s an interesting lineup against LHP. Some of that is small sample size and projections. Still, no projected right-handed Cardinal with more than 10 plate appearances against southpaws this year sits below a 120 wRC+ against them.
Even looking at BARTOLO’s projected wRC+ against LHP, it’s five points higher than the Dodgers.
It would probably be foolish to take these offensive numbers at face value. I don’t think anyone would take the St Louis lineup over the Dodgers' one here, but there’s a spark, and with a number this high, a spark may be enough.
You have a young pitcher with some talent (45 Future Value via Fangraphs with a 65-grade changeup right now) and an offense that might be a little better than they’re being credited for.
I don’t expect the Cardinals to win more than one-third of the time here, but this line is too large. Novig is currently offering 28% (+257), which would be the best line.
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Pick: Cardinals ML (+200 or Better)
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