We kick off this 9-game MLB slate on Thursday with Giants vs. Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET.
I'm bringing you all afternoon bangers, as I'm also focusing on White Sox vs. Astros at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Read on for my 4 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
| 12:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
| 2:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs Pirates Prediction, Pick
This is a great spot, and these odds are a bit too high. We don't have a huge sample size of Giants starter Blade Tidwell in the majors, but in his 52.2 innings, he's been absolutely crushed by lefty power (2.25 HR/9).
The underlying numbers look just as bad, with a 48% fly-ball rate, 31% hard-contact rate, and a low 13.9% K rate.
Oneil Cruz is an above-average home run hitter, and I have the true odds for the Pirates CF at around +350.
Pick: Oneil Cruz Home Run
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Giants vs Pirates Prediction, Pick
This isn't a bad spot, and these odds are a bit too high given Rafael Devers' recent form.
Pirates SP Lake Bachar has been an above-average matchup for lefty power this season, allowing a 1.36 HR/9.
While he's been a below-average matchup for lefty power in this career, he grades out as an average matchup.
This ballpark is below average, but it's a lateral move from San Francisco, and the weather should be a plus for hitting, with temperatures in the high-80s and wind blowing out.
Devers has been on an absolute tear recently, and I have the true odds for the Giants DH at around +320.
Pick: Rafael Devers Home Run
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White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick
This spot is below average, but these odds more than make up for it. Astros starter Hunter Brown has struggled this season with lefty power (1.39 HR/9), but he's due for some positive regression and has allowed a 0.98 HR/9 in his career.
Munetaka Murakami hasn't hit a dinger in a few weeks, but he's still one of the best HR hitters in the league.
I have the true odds for the White Sox 1B at around +400.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Home Run
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White Sox vs Astros Prediction, Pick
These odds are a bit low, but the matchup more than makes up for it.
White Sox SP Luis Castillo is a gas can for lefty power, allowing a massive 2.07 HR/9 this season.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and I have the true odds for the Astros DH at around +240.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run
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