Check out my two favorite MLB player prop picks today for Thursday, September 3.
MLB Player Props Today
- Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (47c, Kalshi)
- Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 Strikeouts (48c, Kalshi)
Brewers vs Cubs Prop
After allowing nine home runs in a 17-3 walloping in Monday's series opener, the Brewers have responded with 18 runs across a pair of convincing victories, effectively putting the final nail in the coffin of the Cubs' division hopes.
In those two matchups, Cubs starters Matthew Boyd and David Peterson combined for just eight innings, so struggling deadline acquisition Kevin Gausman could be given a fairly lengthy leash in this matchup, even if he is unable to deliver a particularly dominant outing.
With that in mind, Kalshi's price for Gausman to allow at least three earned runs against a Brewers lineup that has been in strong form looks to provide value.
While it was logical for the Blue Jays to move one of the franchise's most beloved pitchers at the trade deadline given their position in the standings, the front office may have also concluded that Gausman is no longer the starter he once was.
Across his last 86 and 1/3 innings of work, Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 5.63 with an xFIP of 4.14, and allowed three or more earned runs in 11 of those 16 starts. In those 16 starts, he also holds a Stuff+ rating of 96, a notable drop-off compared to his average of 101.5 over the past six seasons.
Since July 1st, the Brewers have posted a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and rank second in MLB in expected weighted on-base average. They currently have no position players on the injured list and should be expected to field their top lineup in this matchup as they look to put the finishing touches on another NL Central title.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (52c or Better)
Rays vs Rangers Prop
The Rays have been quite cautious with McClanahan since his most recent return from the IL, as he's thrown just 80, 74, and 57 pitches in his first three starts back in the rotation.
Perhaps he will be stretched closer to 90 pitches in Thursday's matchup, but even based on that expectation, there looks to be value backing him to record under 4.5 strikeouts versus a fairly disciplined Rangers lineup that has hit lefties quite effectively over the last three months.
Since June 1st, the Rangers have posted a 131 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, while striking out 22.2% of the time and walking at an 8.4% clip. They also rank second in MLB in both OPS and on-base percentage against lefties during that span.
McClanahan has struck out just 6.86 batters per nine innings across his past eight starts, while allowing an 86.4% zone-contact rate.
Given the Rangers' success against left-handed pitching and McClanahan's diminished ability to generate swings and misses of late, this sets up as a challenging matchup for the southpaw to generate strikeouts.
Pick: Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 Strikeouts (51c or Better)
