The Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox on September 3, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CHSN.
The Astros are favored by -165 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and White Sox vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Astros Prediction
- White Sox vs Astros Pick: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Our White Sox vs Astros best bet is on Luis Castillo to record four or fewer strikeouts today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +135 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -165 |
- White Sox vs Astros moneyline: White Sox +135, Astros -165
- White Sox vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -118u)
- White Sox vs Astros spread: White Sox +1.5 (-155), Astros -1.5 (+125)
White Sox vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (RHP, CHW) | Stat | Hunter Brown (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.31 / 5.00 | ERA / xERA | 3.33 / 3.58 |
| 4.89 / 4.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.36 / 3.94 |
| 12.5 | K-BB% | 12.4 |
| 36.2 | GB% | 55.4 |
| .308 | BABIP | .260 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 108 | Location+ | 95 |
White Sox vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects White Sox starter Luis Castillo for 3.61 strikeouts against the Astros, giving us a terrific 15.9% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to tag the under with an A- grade in our system.
His strikeout numbers have been trending down in the last few years, with his worst K/9 rate this season at 7.82.
This is the first time in his career with a K/9 below eight, and a long way from the 10.00 and 10.01 marks he posted in 2022 and 2023.
Also, Castillo might not last long, as he has done poorly on the road, with a 5.72 ERA, and is coming off an awful August with a 6.45 ERA.
White Sox vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Castillo has gone under this 4.5 line in eight of his past 10 starts, with a 10-strikeout outing against the Reds as the clear outlier in the chart below.
Let's fade him against Houston on his strikeouts prop.
Pick: Luis Castillo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
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