We went 2-2 on Tuesday, but with one of the losses being a half-unit bet, that led to a slight profit. Let's look to improve on that on Wednesday, especially with a massive 17-game slate.
I have five picks on Wednesday, including two single-team YRFI bets.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 14, 2025
Cardinals vs. Phillies Game 1 NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Jesus Luzardo
It's always nice to have some day games, especially when we have solid betting opportunities.
Game 1 of the Phillies-Cardinals doubleheader is a solid YRFI spot.
Erick Fedde has a 3.86 overall ERA this season, but he has considerably worse underlying numbers. He's also especially bad early in games, with his first-time-through-the-order ERA and xFIP both sitting over 6.00.
That's tough against a solid Phillies lineup that has three borderline superstars at the top.
With the Cardinals on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the lefty Luzardo, and Luzardo having a sub-3.00 ERA and xFIP his first time through the order, the single-team YRFI makes more sense.
However, if that line moves out of range, the full-game -102 line at FanDuel is also solid.
Yankees vs. Mariners NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Will Warren vs. Luis Castillo
In any other ballpark, I'd feel great about this bet. But given that it's in Seattle, this is just a slight edge.
Still, it's an edge nonetheless.
New York has the best top of the order in baseball, with four straight bats who have at least a 155 wRC+ on the season.
To put it another way, all four would be in the top-20 hitters in baseball if Trent Grisham had enough plate appearances to qualify.
They're facing Luis Castillo, whose first-time-through-the-order ERA is an elite 1.65. However, his xFIP is 5.07, reflecting a larger trend of his underlying numbers being considerably worse than his actual performance.
Much of that is due to pitching in the best pitcher's park in the majors, a factor that isn't changing on Wednesday.
However, this Yankees lineup is so strong that it might not matter, and we only need about a 1/3 chance of hitting this bet for it to be a good one.
As always with these single-team bets, risk half of your usual RFI unit.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Game 2 NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Aaron Nola
Game two of the doubleheader in Philly features much better starting pitching, with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray taking the mound.
On top of that, there's a good chance some of the star hitters at the top of the lineup get the second game of the day off, particularly on the Philadelphia side.
At worst, they'll likely be a bit tired while facing fresh arms.
Both starters are solid early in games regardless of that, with each having xFIP marks right around 3.00.
We're also getting some pitcher-friendly weather in the evening, which furthers the cause.
All in all, that's enough for this low-juice NRFI, especially if you can get the -118 at BetRivers.
Rays vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Pepiot vs. Chris Bassitt
This is a bit of a tricky projection. One pitcher — Chris Bassitt — has an excellent first-time-through-the-order xFIP of 2.96, but he has an ERA two runs higher.
The other — Ryan Pepiot — has a 2.20 ERA, but his xFIP is much higher.
That means you could make a case that either or both are due for some regression, but in opposite directions.
However, with both teams' early-lineup bats struggling this season, I'm much more comfortable betting on Bassitt to positively regress and Pepiot to maintain his "luck."
That's especially the case when Caesars is giving us a line considerably better than the rest of the market.
White Sox vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Davis Martin vs. Nick Lodolo
We went (unsuccessfully) with the Reds team YRFI in this series on Tuesday, but I like the full-game option better on Wednesday.
Two of the White Sox's first three hitters have solid numbers against lefties, and they're taking on southpaw Nick Lodolo. Lodolo has a 4.80 xFIP his first time through the order this season.
Cincinnati is still driving more of the projection, especially with White Sox starter Davis Martin having ERA numbers in the upper fours (both overall and early).
Plus, this is a great price on a game with a nine-run total, in one of the best hitters parks in baseball and with slightly positive hitting weather.
