MLB Odds & Predictions: 3 Best Bets for Monday, Featuring Diamondbacks vs. Giants & Padres vs. Rockies (July 11)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Joc Pederson.
- Monday's MLB slate isn't a big one, but there's still plenty of betting value across the board.
- Our staff came through with three best bets for Monday: White Sox vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Rockies and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
- Check out all three best bets for Monday's slate below.
As usual, Monday's MLB slate isn't a big one. The schedule features just 10 games, including a doubleheader between the Royals and Tigers.
But there's still betting value across the board.
Our staff came through with three best bets for three divisional games on Monday: White Sox vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Rockies and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
Check out all three picks below, and be sure to come back tomorrow for even more action.
MLB Odds & Picks
White Sox vs. Guardians
Jules Posner: The White Sox head to Cleveland to open a pivotal four game series against the Guardians on Monday.
Lance Lynn and Cal Quantrill will square off in this battle for second place in the AL Central, and it should be a doozy.
Lynn has not looked quite like himself so far this season. In a small sample of road starts, he's compiled a 2.61 ERA, 3.20 FIP and 4.25 xFIP. Between one good start and one so-so start, it's difficult to get a read on where he's at.
One red flag is that Lynn seems to have lost about 1.5 MPH across all of his pitches, which may mean he's not all the way back yet. Additionally, he's stranded 88% of baserunners in those two road starts, which is unsustainably high.
On the other side, Quantrill has been steady but not great at home this season. He has a respectable 3.25 ERA in Cleveland, but his 4.56 FIP and 4.32 xFIP at home are a little scary.
However, Quantrill is not a huge strikeout pitcher and relies on getting ground balls. That could have a negative influence on his FIP.
The White Sox offense has posted a 111 wRC+ over the past couple of weeks against right-handed pitching on the road, but that's inflated by a series in which they absolutely pummeled the back end of the Giants' rotation.
Furthermore, whenever the White Sox seem poised to make their move in the AL Central, they tend to fall flat. The White Sox are also 1-4 against the Guardians this season and 13-16 against the Central Division in general.
The Guards F5 moneyline can be found at +105, and if it stays in plus money territory, this should be the play.
The Guardians' bullpen has struggled recently, so this is a good way to factor them out. It also leaves room for a push. Play this line as long as it's in plus money.
Padres vs. Rockies
Tony Sartori: We have the first matchup of this four-game NL West divisional matchup as the Rockies host the Padres. This game is the eighth meeting between these two clubs this season, and the Rockies have won five of the first seven matchups (71%).
I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Jose Urena takes the mound for Colorado. Through five pitching appearances this season, Urena boasts a 2.51 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Tonight will be Urena's second start of the season, and he was superb in his first start. Going against a stronger Dodgers lineup, Urena allowed just one earned run on five hits through 6.2 innings pitched.
Urena should receive some solid run support in this game as the Rockies face left-hander Sean Manaea. Since June 1, the Rockies rank seventh in the league in BA, eighth in SLG, seventh in OPS and sixth in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers.
In 48 career plate appearances against Manaea, this current Rockies roster boasts a .341 BA, .636 SLG and .433 wOBA. Additionally, the Padres have lost 10 of their last 14 games.
The line has moved about 15 cents in favor of San Diego since it opened. The public is all over the Padres, which makes sense given the two teams.
However, the matchup favors the Rockies, and they've had the Padres' number this season.
I would play this line up to +115.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Sean Zerillo: I'll continue to bang the drum for Alex Cobb, who has expected indicators (2.70 xERA, 2.79 xFIP, 3.04 SIERA) about two total runs below his actual mark (4.74 ERA).
I'll keep expressing it until his numbers even out — Cobb has been extremely unlucky this season, carrying a .348 BABIP (.295 career) and a 57% strand rate (71.8% career), both of which should regress toward career norms or league averages (.287 BABIP, 72.3% strand rate, in 2022).
The 2022 version of Cobb is the best version we have ever seen. His fastball velocity (94.7 MPH on the season, vs. 91.7 MPH career) has increased substantially and peaked in two of his past three starts, averaging 95.2 MPH.
And his groundball rate (63%) is nearly 10% above his career average (53.6%).
After ranking as a top-10 defensive unit, the Giants have struggled on defense this season (29th in Defensive Runs Saved, 30th in Outs Above Average), hurting Cobb in the process. While I still rate their Monday lineup as a below-average defensive unit, I project them closer to league average than the worst defensive team in baseball.
Even after assuming a massive defensive advantage for Arizona — which I rate closer to a top-five defensive team — I still projected the Giants as -184 favorites (64.8% implied) for the first five innings of Monday's matchup.
As a result, you can bet the Giants' F5 moneyline up to -169 (62.8% implied) for Monday night, at a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
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