Sunday MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: 2 Favorite Bets, Featuring Mariners vs. Yankees (August 8)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil.
- We have another stacked lineup of Major League Baseball games on Sunday's schedule.
- Analysts Kenny Ducey and Matthew Trebby deliver their best bets, which come from the Mariners vs. Yankees showdown.
- Check out how they're playing this game below and where they've found betting value.
We have another loaded Major League Baseball card staring at us Sunday, with several important showdowns taking place across the landscape.
However, our savvy betting analysts have chosen to focus on the same matchup and that’s the game between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. Kenny Ducey and Matthew Trebby have an angle on this American League affair, with one backing a side and the other targeting the game total.
Let’s take a look at how this duo is approaching this contest in the Big Apple.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mariners vs. Yankees
Kenny Ducey: I feel like I might be taking crazy pills, but the New York Yankees should probably be steeper favorites than just -135 at the Stadium in the Bronx.
Sure, Luis Gil made his debut against the Baltimore Orioles, who aren’t the hardest team to dominate. There are also years worth of minor-league numbers which would throw cold water on his electric debut, exposing a few issues in his game. I’ve still got more than enough confidence here to back him here.
For starters, his strikeout stuff is real. He averaged a great 11.8 punch-outs per nine innings during his five seasons in the minors, and his 3.06 career ERA there was backed by a solid xFIP at every single stop. He’s always had an issue with walks, and he also had a tough start to the season this year in Triple-A.
I will point out one of his two clunkers came against the Syracuse Mets, who had both Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil on rehab assignments, and the other was the product of a tough inning.
Though the Mariners have walked at a high rate over the last two weeks, Gil shouldn’t be victimized by the home run as he was in the minor leagues, considering Seattle’s ISO over that span sits at .138. This team lacks the power to do significant damage against Gil, and its propensity for the strikeout gives the young righty a great chance here to get out unscathed.
With that, I don’t need to remind you this Yankees offense is hot and going against a lefty in Yusei Kikuchi, who’s not only due for regression, but facing the second-best offense against southpaws. The Bombers are a bargain in this American League showdown.
Mariners vs. Yankees
Matt Trebby: At 10 runs, this total is simply too high. Seattle’s lineup isn’t very deep to begin with, plus I don’t love New York’s struggles during day games (29th-ranked OPS). Aside from a four-run seventh inning Saturday in their win over the Mariners, the Yankees were mostly dormant yet again.
New York has gone under this total nine times in its last 12 games, including in every one of its wins. The last time a Seattle game went over 10 runs was July 30. Seattle has had games go under that number seven times since, and their win over the Tampa Bay Rays last Monday hit 10 on the dot.
The first three games of this series have finished under 10 runs and I think starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Gil are capable enough to keep it down again. Let’s live a little and bet the under here. I’d play it down to 9.5 runs.