Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, August 31)
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito.
- Check out our betting preview for Monday's MLB matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins.
- Find betting odds, predictions and a pick for the game below, including why Michael Arinze is betting Chicago to hand Minnesota its sixth straight loss.
White Sox vs. Twins Odds
|White Sox Odds||-129 [Bet Now]|
|Twins Odds||+110 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-113/-108) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Minnesota Twins welcome the Chicago White Sox for a three-game series at Target Field starting on Monday. Both teams met already to start the season, with the Twins winning the series on the road. The White Sox come in winners in eight of their last 10 games and tied for first place.
To steal a line from the Godfather, “they’ve been settling all family business.” Three series ago, the White Sox were dominant in a series win against the rival Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Now they head to Minnesota, and they have the Twins right in their crosshairs.
Minnesota looks like a wounded animal at the moment and could be ripe for the picking. The Twins limp in on a five-game losing streak, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. The defending American League Central Division champions now trail the Cleveland Indians and White Sox by 1.5 games.
Given the current pitching matchup, I’m not sure Minnesota is ready to put an end to its skid just yet.
Veteran left-hander Rich Hill will get the ball for the Twins. This season, Hill is 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. However, against the White Sox he’s been terrible with an 0-2 mark and 6.41 ERA.
When you take a closer look at Hill’s numbers with Minnesota, his higher 4.32 FIP suggests he could see an increase in his earned runs allowed. In three starts, Hill is averaging around four innings per start, and his BB/9 ratio has increased from 2.76 in 2019 to 4.26 this year.
While the Twins are ranked 26th in the league with a walk rate of 7.6%, with Hill their walk rate jumps to 18.4%. If Hill is feeling charitable, the White Sox would be happy to oblige him. Chicago is first in the league with the highest wRC+ rating in the league (125), second with a .486 SLG percentage and third in the league with 64 home runs.
Expect plenty of guys on base while Hill is on the mound today. This White Sox lineup has a .286 BAA / .474 / .643 SLG slash line against Hill along with three home runs. When you factor in that the White Sox are hitting .307 against lefties this season, it could be a short night and a quick hook for the Minnesota southpaw.
Chicago White Sox
Lucas Giolito can’t do much better than he did his last time out. Giolito tossed a no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he did it while throwing only 101 pitches. He’s yet to surrender a run in his last 17 innings of work, as Chicago has posted a shutout in each of his last two outings.
Currently, Giolito is 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA, but against the Twins, he’s just 4-6 with a 5.34 ERA. That said, in his only start at Target Field last year, he pitched a complete-game shutout while striking out 12 batters and allowing three hits in a White Sox 4-0 win.
Twins batters are hitting just .248 against Giolito, but he’s given up 10 home runs in 137 at-bats against them. He should be stingier this time around, as this season his HR/9 ratio is 0.62. and his 2.67 FIP suggests that the earned runs allowed can go even lower.
This is one of those matchups I don’t want to overthink. The White Sox are scorching hot at the moment while the Twins look absolutely listless.
Figure this, Minnesota managed just two runs a game in its three-game series over the weekend. Granted, two of those games were seven-inning doubleheaders, but it was still against the Tigers, who had a +57 run differential going in before the start of the series.
Hill is the single-most important factor in assessing this game, and I expect Chicago’s right-handed bats to absolutely feast off the left-hander.
We know the White Sox right now are at the top of the league in creating runs, and their .474 OBP against Hill should create opportunities for them to score in bunches.
Giolito is in a special kind of groove right now, and I’m not one to rock the boat. DraftKings is offering up the White Sox at -127 odds, and I can’t get to the window fast enough to bet them. I like Giolito to stay hot and Chicago to hand Minnesota a sixth consecutive loss.
White Sox moneyline -127 (Play up to -145)