The San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs on April 27, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Padres are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by priced at +183 to cover the run line (-1.5). The Cubs are -105 on the moneyline and +150 to cover +1.5. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Padres Prediction
- Cubs vs Padres Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline -105 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
My Cubs vs Padres best bet is Cubs Moneyline -105. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -105 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -183 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -115 |
- Cubs vs Padres moneyline: Cubs -105, Padres -115
- Cubs vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Cubs vs Padres spread: +1.5 (+150), -1.5 -183)
Cubs vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Randy Vásquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.79/3.71 | ERA / xERA | 1.88/4.31 |
| 1.56/1.86 | FIP / xFIP | 2.53/3.54 |
| 33.9% | K-BB% | 19.3% |
| 41.9% | GB% | 42.5% |
| .400 | BABIP | .301 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 115 | Location+ | 101 |
Cubs vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Boyd's Numbers Hide a Secret
Matthew Boyd enters his fourth start of the year sporting an ugly 5.79 ERA, but that mark may not be much of a meaningful indicator for the rest of his campaign. The veteran lefty has pitched just 14 innings, and his ERA is still tanked by a horrific Opening Day outing versus the Washington Nationals in which he allowed six ER and recorded just 11 outs.
He's finished with a 3.21 ERA across 179 and 2/3 innings in 2025, and his underlying profile suggests it is likely that he can post comparable results this season. He holds an xFIP of just 1.86, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 33.9%, and 108. Those numbers obviously come from a small sample, but they are all career bests.
The veteran came off the 15-day IL before Wednesday's start and allowed two runs and five hits across four and two-thirds innings versus the Philadelphia Phillies. He struck out 9.64 batters per nine, held an xFIP of 1.91, and a Stuff+ rating of 100, which all suggest he was not hampered by the biceps strain that landed him on the IL.
As was expected entering the year, the Cubs' bullpen has been solid thus far, pitching to an ERA of 3.76 and a 12th-ranked adjusted ERA.
The Cubs have no position players on the IL and should offer a tough test for Vasquez in this matchup. Chicago ranks second in baseball with a wRC+ of 122 and a wRC+ of 112 versus right-handed pitching, after ranking 10th in wRC+ versus righties in 2025.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Vasquez Outdoing His Metrics, Again
In each of his four big league seasons, Vasquez has, to varying degrees, always outperformed his underlying metrics. He's gotten off to an incredible start with a 1.88 ERA throughout his first 28 and 2/3 innings, and as for essentially any starter with a sub-two ERA, he does appear to have had some fortunate luck.
Vasquez holds a 4.34 xERA and 19.3% strikeout-minus-walk rate. He's allowed only one home run despite ranking in the 13th percentile in barrel rate, and holds a Pitching+ rating of 94.
San Diego ranks 15th in MLB with a wRC+ of 97 and ranks 19th in BB/K ratio. They do rank 11th in xwOBA, though and still project to be a better-than-average offensive team this season.
Cubs vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
While it does seem reasonable to believe that Vasquez is once again underrated by some of his underlying metrics, Boyd still appears to be the superior starter in this matchup, while both sides offer high-quality bullpens that are in surprisingly good shape following tough series over the weekend.
Chicago's offense has been in tremendous form thus far and still offers strong depth despite the loss of Kyle Tucker. It is also one of the best defensive teams in the league, and Boyd should find significant positive regression towards his career-high BABIP in the near future.
Given the strength of the Cubs' lineup and that Boyd appears due for significantly better results moving forward, a price of -105 for Chicago to win this game looks to be a strong play.
Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline -105 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
