The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Miami Marlins on April 27, 2026. First pitch from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by – on the moneyline and by – on the run line. The – are – on the moneyline and – on the run line. The total is set at – runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Dodgers Prediction
- Marlins vs Dodgers Pick: Dodgers -1.5
My Marlins vs Dodgers best bet is on the Dodgers run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Dodgers Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +116 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +245 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -142 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -300 |
- Marlins vs Dodgers moneyline: Marlins +245, Dodgers -300
- Marlins vs Dodgers over/under: 8.5 runs
- Marlins vs Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-142)
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Marlins vs Dodgers Probable Pitchers
| Chris Paddack (MIA) | Stat | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 6.38 / 3.82 | ERA / xERA | 2.48 / 3.63 |
| 4.63 / 3.66 | FIP / xFIP | 3.16 / 3.64 |
| 17.1 | K-BB% | 18.7 |
| 41 | GB% | 39.1 |
| .351 | BABIP | .244 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 113 | Location+ | 105 |
Marlins vs Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Not Much to Believe in
The Marlins will attempt to stop a two-game skid by throwing Chris Paddack on Monday against the Dodgers, a task that may possibly be too tall for him.
The righty does stand a chance at improving upon his 6.38 ERA — especially when you consider he's rocking a 3.83 Expected ERA — but that may be a red herring entering this one.
Paddack's relatively safe xERA is a product of his low walk rate, but as a strike-thrower without much strikeout capability, you're going to see a huge volume of batted balls — along with plenty of this purported "bad luck."
The veteran has lowered his Expected Batting Average from around .272 the last two seasons to .256 in 2026, but it's still not as if this is a great mark — not to mention he's allowing a career-high 48.1% hard-hit rate at the moment.
The good news is that Paddack is still a fly-ball pitcher, meaning in the aggregate he should give up fewer hits. However, this year, he's played closer to the league average, while his pop-up rate has dropped.
He still has a poor Pull Air% (around 20%), he's not getting as many pop-ups, and hitters are crushing the ball. He may see some slight positive regression, but I don't think there's much here to believe in.
Even his "good" outings have had blemishes, too, like the four walks he issued against the Yankees in his lone scoreless outing, or the fact that he's averaged one home run per start.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: What to Make of Yoshinobu?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is less complicated of a case; you pretty much know what you're getting, and you're getting something good. The righty has maintained a neat 2.48 ERA through five starts, with another expert start in the walks department.
However, under the surface there are some things worth taking stock of.
First off, it's incredibly early. Have you heard that lately? Because I don't feel like I have. Players' Baseball Savant circles are still fluctuating wildly from game to game, and for starting pitchers specifically, the sample is really still building.
That's why it's important to take what I say with a grain of salt, but we must state that Yamamoto's strikeout rate has fallen quite a bit in the early going — from 29.4% last year to 22.8% this year — and all of the sudden he's lost his ability to roll up ground balls.
He was running a 53.7% ground-ball rate a year ago, which was almost 10 points ahead of the league average, and to this point in 2026, he's down at 37.1%.
Now, early on batted ball trajectories can be easily influenced by one offense that plays to the extreme, and that may be the case here. Yamamoto was up over 50% in his last two outings before posting a 15.8% ground-ball rate against the Giants last time out.
It just so happens that those two grounder-happy outings were the best of his season, and it also turns out that his xBA has ballooned to .248 with a .420 xSLG this season — the latter isn't a good number.
Marlins vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
Given what we've covered about Yamamoto, the recipe for success would seem to be right there for him on Monday. The Marlins are hitting the fourth-most ground balls on average, and they have the seventh-worst expected slugging.
Though they haven't struck out a bunch, this should really help Yamamoto get back to basics, rolling up groundouts and keeping the ball out of the air to mitigate the home run risk and lower his xSLG.
For Paddack, things look a lot more difficult. Though the Dodgers do normally fare better against ground-ballers, the difference is somewhat negligible, and they currently have the league's best offense, with a .195 Isolated Power to rank first by a mile.
For Paddack, who's had issues with home runs, that's a nightmarish sight. And L.A.'s great numbers on contact should mean the hits keep on coming against this strike-thrower.
It's hard to like the Fish here.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-137) | Play to -142
