Diamondbacks vs. Mets MLB Odds & Picks: Back the Over With a Bad New York Bullpen (May 8)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Walker
- The Diamondbacks demolish the baseball when a lefty toes the rubber -- hence why this over is enticing.
- MLB betting analyst D.J. James breaks down their Saturday showdown against the Mets.
- Find out why he likes this total to go over.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Saturday and via BetMGM.|
After the New York Mets came away with a close victory in 10 innings on Friday, they will have to do their best in a pairing of back and middle of the rotation starting pitchers: Merrill Kelly will throw against Joey Lucchesi, the latter of whom could manage only 2 2/3 innings in his last outing against the St. Louis Cardinals. Kelly, on the other hand, has looked pretty sharp in his last few outings after the Rockies and Nationals lit him up in early April.
However, without the studs on the hill for either of these teams, there could be a chance for some runs early.
The Diamondbacks currently rank in the middle of the pack in wRC+ at 99. They’re essentially a league-average hitting team — and the Mets are not far behind (97).
It was a welcome boost to have Christian Walker return to the lineup this week for the D-Backs. They did take a hit early in the season when potential MVP contender Ketel Marte went down with a hamstring strain. In good news for them, he heads to a rehab assignment soon, which would be a welcome addition to the team with Kole Calhoun sidelined for much of the season.
In the interim, Carson Kelly, David Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera have picked up the slack. Unfortunately, the lineup is a tad top-heavy, but they should not have any issues against the ailing Lucchesi.
Arizona demolishes the baseball when a lefty toes the rubber. The Diamondbacks also walk 11.0% of the time against southpaws, so this negates Lucchesi’s one positive attribute (accuracy). Since he ranks in only the fourth-percentile in Chase Rate, the Diamondbacks will be patient enough to wait for their pitches.
Arizona’s bullpen has not been its strong suit this year. Out of relievers with five or more innings of work, only Caleb Smith and Kevin Ginkel have sub-4.00 ERAs, which does not put the Diamondbacks in the best shape to close out games. This is where the Mets will likely get their runs.
New York Mets
The Mets are, once again, a league-average hitting team — even when facing righties.
Kelly can put together a solid showing, so the Mets will do most of their damage when he leaves the game. If they can piece together a few runs off him, however, they should be in good shape. Unfortunately, Francisco Lindor and Dominic Smith have not yet hit their stride. James McCann also looks like a shell of his past self when he played for the White Sox, but the rest of the lineup can cause considerable damage.
Kelly does allow a hard-hit percentage of 44.1%, so Pete Alonso might be the bat to watch.
The Mets’ bullpen is another story — they rank second in the Major Leagues with a 3.41 xFIP and sixth with a 3.22 ERA. They will need to perform at this level because there is a strong chance Lucchesi does not throw more than five innings. More than likely, they will be pretty taxed after throwing a 10-inning bullpen game on Friday, so this will negate this advantage over Arizona.
The Diamondbacks will score plenty of runs early off another southpaw. The Mets will be able to score a few early to force the Diamondbacks to go to their bullpen earlier than expected, and since their bullpen threw 10 innings on Friday, Lucchesi does not have much leeway for yet another poor start.
Even with a strong Mets bullpen, all of these variables lean considerably to the over, which currently stands at 8 (-115). Take this up to 9 (-110).
Pick: Over 8 (-115)