The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 7, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Padres are favored by -178 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +150 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
- Cardinals vs Padres Pick: Cardinals ML (+150)
My Cardinals vs Padres best bet is on St. Louis to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Padres Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -110o / -110u | -178 |
- Cardinals vs Padres moneyline: Cardinals +150, Padres -178
- Cardinals vs Padres over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Cardinals vs Padres spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-142), Padres -1.5 (+118)
Cardinals vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Liberatore (SL) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 3-2 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.50 / 5.78 | ERA / xERA | 2.95 / 3.99 |
| 5.83 / 4.92 | FIP / xFIP | 3.82 / 4.20 |
| 6.3 | K-BB% | 13.2 |
| 36.4 | GB% | 45.7 |
| .289 | BABIP | .253 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 100 | Location+ | 93 |
Cardinals vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals are significantly better than their preseason expectations. They have a 21-15 record, with seven wins in their past ten games. They have propelled to second in the NL West on the back of their offense, which ranks sixth in team wRC+ and wOBA.
Unfortunately, their run differential is negative, ranking fourth in the division behind Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. Unless they make significant additions to their rotation and bullpen, their second-place standing will not last long.
This season was not meant for contention, but it is nice for Cardinals fans to experience wins from a young, exciting team. JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn all grant a glimmer of hope for the franchise's future.
Regardless, it will all be for nothing if the rotation does not become situated. None of the Cardinals' current starting pitchers would make a rotation for contending MLB teams. Three have an ERA of at least 4.50, while none have more strikeouts than innings pitched!
This season is a year of limbo for the organization, but it is also what they needed after years of trotting out baseball geriatrics.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres are looming right behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They sit half a game back after winning three of their past four games.
This season speaks to the Padres' resilience. They are winning despite the absence of ace Nick Pivetta, the disappearance of Joe Musgrove and the power outage from Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres' rotation is a mish-mash of SPs they acquired for little (Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning) or were not planning on starting significantly (Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron). While they are headed by a quality pitcher, today's starter, Michael King, this rotation would not win many games on most rosters.
The Padres not only benefit from a pitcher-friendly home park, but arguably the best bullpen in baseball, which allows them to give away game leverage with their starting pitchers. This is not a formula for playoff success, but it is working for now.
Cardinals vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
The Padres have a significant advantage in this pitching matchup. Michael King versus Matthew Liberatore is almost a "Hydrogen Bomb Versus Coughing Baby" meme come to life.
King's 2.95 ERA and peripheral metrics trump Liberatore's 4.50 ERA, backed by higher peripherals, suggesting that he is lucky thus far.
However, King is getting lucky, too. His 2.95 ERA is backed by a 3.99 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, and a 4.15 SIERA. While this follows a trend from 2025 where his ERA was a full run lower than his peripherals, regression eventually comes.
The Cardinals rank sixth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. This matchup could expose King, who has not faced a team this strong against righties. On the contrary, three of his seven starts this season have come against teams ranking in the bottom eight against RHP!
Meanwhile, the Padres struggle against left-handed pitching. They rank as the eighth-worst team against lefties, with a well-below-average wRC+ and the fewest home runs (due to the fewest plate appearances) against them.
Liberatore is not an overpowering SP. He attempts to win on fly balls and the fantastic defense behind him. He struggled against a Seattle offense that ranks as poorly as the Padres against LHP, but they can take advantage of fly-ball SPs (fourth in HR vs LHP).
Furthermore, four of Liberatore's seven starts this season have come against teams ranking in the top eight against LHP. Despite this, he has thrown at least five innings in all but one start in 2026.
We can expect the Padres to tag Liberatore for a few runs, but the Cardinals have the offensive advantage in this matchup and a fresher bullpen.
Having pitched four innings since Sunday, the Padres are likely without top left-handed reliever Adrian Morejon. This leaves San Diego with an RHP-heavy game that, aside from Mason Miller, the Cardinals can handle.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+150, FanDuel)
