The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 7, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Red Sox are favored by -116 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Rays are -102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rays vs Red Sox Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-128)
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet is Under 4.5 total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -116 |
- Rays vs Red Sox moneyline: Rays -102, Red Sox -116
- Rays vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-100o/-122u)
- Rays vs Red Sox spread: Rays -1.5 (+168), Red Sox +1.5 (-205)
Rays vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Griffin Jax (TB) | Stat | LHP Jake Bennett (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-0 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 5.14 / 5.89 | ERA / xERA | 1.80 / 10.24 |
| 5.85 / 4.59 | FIP / xFIP | 5.74 / 3.71 |
| 14.5 | K-BB% | 5.0 |
| 48.6 | GB% | 60.0 |
| .250 | BABIP | .286 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 100 | Location+ | 109 |
Rays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays have been one of the most surprising teams in baseball so far. They've won 12 of their last 13 games, putting them at 24-12, which is the fourth-best record in MLB. Currently on a six-game winning streak, the Rays head to Fenway Park to take on the Red Sox.
Tampa is sending out Griffin Jax, who has been converted to a starting pitcher. Don't let his season-long stats fool you, as this is a pitcher on an upward trajectory. In Jax's last two appearances, he's combined for zero earned runs on two hits in five innings. So far, the shift to the rotation is going quite well.
Jax is slowly getting built up, going 31 pitches in his first appearance and 45 in his last one. We can reasonably project around 60 pitches for this game, which could put him at four innings. Given what we've seen from Jax lately, that bodes well for the Rays.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox have gotten off to a slow start, but they've now won three in a row, improving their record to 16-21. Sweeping the Tigers in Detroit was an impressive result. It's exactly the type of confidence boost this team needs right now.
Boston is riding with left-hander Jake Bennett, who made his big league debut against the Astros on May 2, going five innings with one earned run on five hits while walking two and striking out three.
Bennett had a 0.86 ERA in 21 innings at Triple-A before getting called up, so perhaps he can build on that at the big league level.
Action PRO projects him for 3.2 strikeouts tonight.
With the Red Sox dealing with injuries to Garrett Crochet and Ranger Suarez, a surprise emergence from Bennett would be huge.
Rays vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm going with Under 4.5 runs in the first five innings. This is a bet on Jax continuing to thrive as a starter.
He's got an impressive 108 Stuff+, with an arsenal that could translate well as a starter. Ignore his season totals, as those are skewed by some poor outings in relief earlier in the season.
While Bennett is a wild card who gave up a lot of hard contact in his first start, the Rays have never seen him before, which could cause issues for their offense, especially in the early innings.
That could be enough to keep this one below the number in the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-128, FanDuel)
