Cardinals vs. Twins Odds & Picks: How We’re Betting Tuesday’s Moneyline

Cardinals vs. Twins Odds & Picks

Odds as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The St. Louis Cardinals kick off a two-game series against Minnesota Twins Tuesday night. The Cardinals come in after winning their opening series against the Pirates, while the Twins took two of three from the White Sox.

Former All-Star, Carlos Martinez gets the call for the Cardinals and he’ll be opposed by Homer Bailey of the Twins.

Cardinals

Martinez has had quite a start to his Major League career. He has three seasons of double-digit wins, 20-plus saves in one season, and he’s already been a two-time all-star.

Last season he held the role of closer for the Cardinals in an effort to limit his pitches and protect against an ailing shoulder. This season, Martinez is back in the rotation and he’ll be looking to get his first win against the Twins after receiving a no decision in three previous starts.

Twins

Bailey has been viewed as fodder by much of the betting community and it’s more than the idea of a pitcher whose first name is what hitters dream about when they go to bed at night. Just two seasons ago he managed just one win in twenty starts and had a 6.09 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP.

That was a season Bailey would like to forget along with the majority of his outings when facing the Cardinals. For his career, Bailey is 6-16 with a 5.80 ERA against the Cardinals. When Bailey has started against St. Louis, his teams are a combined 6-22 with a loss of 16.67 units.

A $100 bettor would be down $1,667 if they backed Bailey in each of those starts. Bailey’s teams have yet to beat the Cardinals the past eight times he faced them.

Betting Analysis

The criticism of Bailey is probably a bit over the top at this point and his detractors are likely disgruntled bettors — he’s six games below .500 for his career and made over 240 starts in the big leagues.

With that said, is he really a -140 favorite? There’s a lot of support for this Twins team in the divisional and futures market, but that doesn’t mean we need to get carried away for a Bailey start in July.

Fading him against the Cardinals has been a profitable play that produced a return of 15.9 units going back to 2007.

I’m a bit leery of bullpens this early in the season so my plan is to take them out of the equation altogether and target Bailey in a first five innings (F5) wager. I’ll look to split my F5 wager between a money line and a run line bet on the Cardinals.

In one scenario, if the game is tied after the fifth inning, I’d push on the moneyline but win the run line bet. If the Cardinals happen to take a lead into the sixth then of course I’d win both bets but if they’re losing, I would lose on both my wagers.

There’s just one thing left to say: Will the real Homer Bailey please stand up?

The Pick: Cardinals F5 +114 | Cardinals F5 (+0.5) -116

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