Padres vs. Dodgers Odds & Pick (Monday, August 10): San Diego Undervalued on First 5 Moneyline

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds

Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The NL West is by far the most fascinating division race so far in 2020. The Rockies currently hold a half-game lead over the Dodgers and a 2.5-game lead over the Padres. So the Padres/Dodgers series this week could prove to be vital for the playoff picture at the end of the season.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Padres

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Padres offense has been on fire to begin the season. It ranks second in MLB with a .342 wOBA and 123 wRC+. Its shortstop, Fernando Tatis Jr., is having a break out season so far, establishing himself as one of the best young players in the game. He's already hit seven homers and driven in 14 runs, which has lead to a .490 wOBA in his first 15 games.

The only pitch the Padres have been somewhat successful against the past two years is a cutter. Dustin May is primarily uses a sinker/cutter combination, so the Padres should have the advantage against one of his pitches on Monday.

Padres Projected Starter

Garrett Richards, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant) (2018)

Garrett Richards' 2019 season was cut short by injury. However, going back to his 2018 season he was really effective, posting a 3.62 xFIP in 76.2 innings of work. So far in 2020 he's been fairly average with 3.86 xFIP through his first three starts.

Richards primarily uses a fastball/slider combination with a lot of velocity. He throws a hard slider that doesn't have much horizontal movement, but drops off the table. So far this season he's been pretty effective with it, producing a 45.3% whiff rate.

His fastball has lost a little bit of velocity from 2018 as its average has gone from 95.8 to 94.7 mph. He wasn't very effective with it in 2018 or so far in 2020, so he'll have to start featuring his slider more often.

Dodgers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Dodgers have been solid offensively so far in 2020, producing a .331 wOBA and 117 wRC+, which ranks 5th in MLB. However, they've been in a bit of a slump for the past seven games as they're only .198 as a team. So far this season, the Dodgers have been really successful against fastballs and curveballs, ranking inside the top 5 in MLB against both. Where the've struggled is against sliders, with -0.6 weighted slider runs so far this season.

The Dodgers faced Garrett Richards five days ago and were able to tag him for four runs in five innings. However, I think Richards will have a better plan this time around and that starts with utilizing his slider more often.

Dodgers Projected Starter

Dustin May, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

The Dodgers' 22-year-old rookie Dustin May looks like their ace of the future. He has electric stuff that leads off with a sinker/two-seam type pitch that can top out at 99 mph with crazy movement. As you can see it's almost unhittable.

He's drawing a lot of comparisons to Jacob deGrom right now and the reason is because of the insane combination of velocity and movement. He also has sick cutter that he likes to use to go away from righties and in on lefties. He then has a drop-off-the-table curveball, but it's by far his worst pitch as he yielded a .477 wOBA against it in 2019.

May faced the Padres six days ago and put together a solid six inning performance, allowing only two runs while striking out eight batters.

Bullpens

The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball and they've been showing it in 2020. So far they've collectively posted a 3.25 xFIP, which ranks second in MLB.

The Padres bullpen was projected to be one of the best in the NL before the season. However, it has struggled so far this season allowing a 4.51 xFIP, which ranks 21st in MLB.

Projections and Pick

Even though May and the Dodgers lineup projects out better than Richards and the Padres lineup, I think the difference isn't severe enough to warrant May being a -190 favorite for the first five innings.

Plus, the Dodgers have a significant advantage in the bullpen, so I would like to avoid that. I will be backing the Padres first five inning moneyline at +150 and I would bet it down to +140.

Pick: Padres First Five Innings (+150) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]