MLB Odds & Player Prop Picks: How To Bet the Strikeout Totals for Framber Valdez, Zach Davies (Tuesday, June 8)
Getty Images. Pictured: Framber Valdez and Zach Davies.
- Framber Valdez faces the Red Sox in his third start back from the IL after striking out 10 his last time out.
- Kevin Davis is targeting that strikeout total as well as the Cubs' Zach Davies.
- Find out which side he's playing in his strikeout prop picks below.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both overs.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 43-36, +1.59 Units, +2% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Framber Valdez (HOU) — 5.5 Strikeouts (-103/-124)
|Astros at Red Sox||Astros -124|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Framber Valdez has missed significant time this season, only recently returning from a season-opening injury and with two starts thus far. Last year as a regular member of the Astros rotation, Valdez averaged more than 6 1/3 innings per start — which is rare in a league when the typical starting pitchers lasts for only five innings.
In a typical start last year, Valdez had 6.94 strikeouts. This season, the Red Sox lineup is averaging 8.53 strikeouts per game, which is slightly better than the median MLB team. When you adjust Valdez’s 2020 strikeout total for the Boston’s lineup, he should have 6.69 strikeouts.
We have limited evidence so far after Valdez’s first two starts, but the evidence points to the over being the best bet. In his last start against the Red Sox, Valdez went seven innings and had 10 strikeouts. On Tuesday night, Valdez should easily replicate that performance and that is why I like the over.
Pick: Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-103) (BetMGM) would play up to -115
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
Zach Davies (CHC) — 2.5 Strikeouts (-185/+135)
|Cubs at Padres||Padres -175|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Zach Davies has been awful this season. After having a 7-4 record with a 2.73 ERA last year with the Padres, he has a 2-3 record and a 4.94 ERA with the Cubs. Even worse for Davies is that his strikeout rate this season has fallen from 8.18 strikeouts per nine innings to only 5.43. As a result, BetMGM has set Davies’ strikeout total at only 2.5 strikeouts.
In Davies last start, I took the over at 2.5 and -130 odds, and despite a poor performance he had four strikeouts.
The opposing San Diego Padres’ lineup averages 9.76 strikeouts per game, which is the second-worst in the league. They may have a great lineup, but their lineup is strikeout-prone even against lightweights like Davies.
In a typical game this season, Davies goes about 4 2/3 innings and has only 2.74 strikeouts. However, last season in a typical game Davies averaged 5 2/3 innings and would have 5.25 strikeouts. When you adjust Davies’ strikeout total to San Diego’s lineup, he should have 3.02 strikeouts tonight.
At -185, the juice is worth the squeeze. I am betting on Davies to have over 2.5 strikeouts, and I would bet it up to -200.
Pick: Zach Davies Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-185) (BetMGM) would play up to -200
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 6