Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Rockies and Two Other Games
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado
Wiseguys struggled on Tuesday, going just 1-3 with their plays. It’s been one step forward and two steps back for the sharps this MLB season. Might it have something to do with the lack of parity in the league? The good teams are great (four teams .630 or better) and the bad teams are awful (five teams .392 or worse). From 2005-17, dogs getting fewer than 30% bets hit at a 40.8% clip (+29.21 units). This season they’re at 37.1% (-8.89 units).
After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 8:40 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (+101)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Brewers (43-30) and Pirates (36-37) have split the first two games of this series. The public likes Milwaukee to win the rubber match tonight, but sharps are buying low on the short home dog. Despite 60% of bets taking the Brewers, the line has moved slightly away from them (-110 to -109), indicating sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh.
Wiseguys at The Greek hit Pirates +105, and then pro players at Pinnacle got down hard on Pirates +106. Pittsburgh enjoys a profitable bets (40%) vs. dollars (60%) discrepancy and the Buccos are also a divisional dog, a profitable spot since 2005.
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros Under 7.5
8:10 p.m. ET
The Rays came up huge for contrarian bettors last night, winning, 2-1, as a massive +208 dog with only 26% bets in their favor. The Under 7 also hit. Wiseguys haven’t gotten down on Tampa tonight, but they are back on the Under train. It’s getting 55% of bets but 80% of dollars, indicating moderate public support but heavy wiseguy smart money.
Sharps at CRIS, 5Dimes and BetOnline all got down hard on the Under 8, causing the total to fall to 7.5. Over buyback has hit the market, but the Under 7.5 is still being juiced up to -120, indicating Under liability. The Minute Maid roof is closed, another benefit for sharp Under backers.
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Under 11.5
8:40 p.m. ET
The Mets and Rockies combined for 18 runs last night. Despite the high total tonight (11.5), public bettors see another easy Coors Field Over. Wiseguys disagree. Currently 62% of bets are on the Over but 65% of dollars are on the Under, indicating a classic Pros vs. Joes bet discrepancy. Goodfellas at Pinnacle and Heritage both hammered the Under 11.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. The total opened at 11.5 (-110 both ways) and has moved to Under 11.5 (-120), another indication of sharp Under liability.
Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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