Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 12: Will Verlander Keep A’s in Check?


Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Sep 12, 2019, 06:00 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Thursday's slate of games, including how to bet the Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (3:40 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

After their 4-0 loss to the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night, the Chicago Cubs are now tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the second NL Wild Card spot – with the Diamondbacks, Mets and Phillies all lurking within 2.5 games.

The Cubs have now lost two games in a row, and are 4-6 in their past 10 games – and are watching their playoff chances slip away.

As of Thursday morning, FiveThirtyEight still gives the Cubs a 44% chance of making the playoffs – while assigning the Brewers a 42% probability, the Mets a 14% chance, Arizona 9%, and the Phillies 4%.

Can San Diego take three out of four games from Chicago, and play spoiler to the Cubs playoff chances?

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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