MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/7: Can Clayton Kershaw Stay Hot in San Fransisco?
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 7 with his model below and highlights Cardinals-Cubs (2:05 p.m. ET) and Diamondbacks-Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
My favorite baseball play from Thursday comes from the 23-40 Lotte Giants in the KBO league:
MyKBO's 'Web Gem' of the Day featuring the guys at Lotte pic.twitter.com/4eUbK9QD62
— Dan Kurtz (@MyKBO) June 5, 2019
Tip drill, successful.
Even for major league players, getting the ball from your glove to your throwing hand can often prove difficult:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.
My tracked plays went 5-2 and I finished up 1.60 units for the day.
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 73 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, gaining as much as 40 cents against the Texas F5 spread (-115 to -155).
MLB Betting Model for Friday, June 7
The model recommends five full-game moneylines and seven moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants as full-game plays. It also likes those same five teams, in addition to the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays, as F5 plays.
I’m not in love with any of the five teams that it likes in both halves. These are all teams that I have lost consistently with this season, and though I’m sure a couple of them might win today, I’m not here to throw darts.
Detroit and Matt Boyd might be the only one of those that I would select.
Instead, I’ll back the Blue Jays on the F5 moneyline and Jacob deGrom and the Mets against the F5 spread.
I went against Merrill Kelly the last time that he pitched and he responded with the best game of his career (7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 K) at home against the Mets.
I’ll still take another shot against him here as he also owns a big home/road split (.285 wOBA at home with 35 K, 4 B; .392 wOBA on the road with 20 K, 19 BB).
The Rockies meanwhile continue to run out Antonio Senzatela despite his having very little success. He owns a 33:23 strikeout to walk ratio in over 50 innings pitched this season, with a 5.48 FIP. His swinging strike rate is also down 2% (to a putrid 6.6%) against his career mark.
I played the Cardinals as a road underdog against the Cubs. St. Louis is taking less than 30% of the moneyline cash and tickets in a divisional matchup with a pretty even starting pitching.
The Cubs recently signed Craig Kimbrel, but the Cardinals have the superior bullpen arms at present, including Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos.
You’re probably aware of Hicks and his 101-plus mph fastball velocity. Gallegos flies under the radar but his numbers are better than his more well-known teammate.
The 27-year-old from Mexico owns a 2.46 xFIP and a 16% swinging strike rate, fanning 38 batters in 24 innings while allowing just 6 walks. He primarily attacks you with his fastball (55%) and slider (43%):
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) June 28, 2018
Lastly, I took the Rays (showing a 3% edge) at a price against the Red Sox. Boston will be a public home side on a Friday night, but I see the fair odds on that game closer to +105/-105.
Bets (So Far) for June 7
- New York Mets (-0.5, -145) F5 Spread
- St. Louis Cardinals (+118) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+125) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (-130) F5 Moneyline
- Over 7.5 (-105), Colorado at NY Mets
- Over 7.5 (-110), LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/7
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.