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Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Saturday, September 27.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Mets vs Nationals Over 8.5
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 HRR
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Seattle Mariners F5 Moneyline
Mets vs Nationals Pick
The Mets and Nationals will duke it out Sunday afternoon, each looking to end the season on a positive note, after both teams failed to make the Postseason.
Lefty Sean Manaea will take the mound for New York while fellow southpaw DJ Herz will get his second start this season for the Nationals.
Manaea has recorded a very mediocre 4.67 ERA across his 144.2 innings pitched. Herz, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back after an abysmal season debut, where he let up nine runs in four innings against the Tigers.
Given Herz’ struggles, I'm targeting a Mets player prop as one of my primary angles.
In six previous at-bats against Herz, Mets’ SS Francisco Lindor has recorded three hits — including a double and a home run.
Herz relies heavily on a high-whiff four-seam fastball and a strong changeup, but has been particularly vulnerable against right-handed bats with elite splits against lefties.
According to BARTOLO, Herz has an insanely high 8.38 xERA along with an inflated 2.25 HR/9, both of which draw concern versus a scrappy right-handed bat like Lindor.
Picks:
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Over 8.5
Mariners vs Angels Pick
The Mariners will host divisional foe Los Angeles Angels on Sunday afternoon in what will be the last game of the 2026 MLB season for both teams.
Righty Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle, while the Halos will trot out veteran southpaw Yusei Kikuchi.
Gilbert has been quite impressive this season, recording a solid 3.81 ERA across 182 innings and boasts one of the most efficient WHIPs (1.10), ranking inside the top-15 amongst starting pitchers.
On the other side, it has been a rough season for Kikuchi, who heads into Sunday’s contest with a less-than-stellar 4.88 ERA.
Knowing that, I'm backing Mariners’ red-hot slugger Randy Arozarena to have a big day.
Arozarena has been on an absolute tear this month, smashing five home runs with a .571 SLG% and a 1.003 OPS across his 80 at-bats.
Statistically, Arozarena doesn't have great career numbers against Kikuchi; nearly half of Arozarena’s hits off him have left the ballpark.
Randy’s extreme ISO versus Kikuchi indicates that when he syncs up well with Kikuchi's timing, he's likely hitting for extra bases.
Additionally, I'm also looking at betting the Mariners F5 moneyline given their sizable edge on the mound.
Picks:
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 HRR
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Mariners F5 Moneyline
