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Sunday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Favorite Picks, Including Freddy Peralta & Kyle Hendricks (July 4)

Sunday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Favorite Picks, Including Freddy Peralta & Kyle Hendricks (July 4) article feature image

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta.

  • Two starting pitchers. Two over plays on their strikeout totals in Sunday's Major League Baseball action.
  • Mike Ianniello delivers his top picks, featuring Freddy Peralta and Kyle Hendricks, below on the card.

I will be evaluating my favorite Major League Baseball player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Freddy Peralta — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Brewers vs. Pirates Brewers (-195)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Another day, another player prop against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re the worst offensive team in Major League Baseball this season, ranking dead last in runs, batting average, wOBA and wRC+ in the categories.

Freddy Peralta has been brilliant for Milwaukee this season, with his 7-2 record and 2.17 ERA. He also finds himself in the NL Cy Young discussion (if Jacob deGrom gets hurt).

Peralta has a 12.62 K/9 this season, which is the fourth best in baseball and second best in the National League. In Peralta’s 15 starts this year, he’s had at least seven strikeouts in 13 of them. He averages 7.7 strikeouts per start.

Known for his terrific fastball, Peralta has really improved his slider this season, as well as the occasional changeup and curveball. All four pitches have allowed a batting average below .170 and have generated a Whiff% above 28%. His slider has a 45.5 K%. He should have no problem clearing this total against Pittsburgh.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Kyle Hendricks — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Cubs vs. Reds Reds (-127)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Kyle Hendricks has really turned his season around after a disastrous start to the season. After posting a 7.54 ERA in five starts during April, Hendricks has a 2.83 ERA in 11 starts since May 1.

The Chicago Cubs ace has earned the win in eight of his last nine games, and has lasted at least six innings in nine consecutive games and every start since the beginning of May except one of them.

Hendricks isn’t known as flamethrower, but instead pounds the bottom of the strike zone with his sinker and changeup. He has just a 7.19 K/9 rate, but his ability to last long into games is why I like him to go over this low total. In his 16 starts this year, he has totaled at least four strikeouts in 12 of them and eight of the last nine. I expect him to go over it again in this matchup.

I prefer laying the juice to get over 3.5 strikeouts, but you can also get over 4.5 at +128 odds. Needless to say, I like that as well.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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