MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Tuesday’s Top Plays, Including Bryce Harper & Logan Webb (Tuesday, July 27)
Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb
- Bryce Harper's success against Erick Fedde has caught the eye of MLB analyst Tanner McGrath tonight.
- Not only that, but there are two strikeout totals that our Action Labs projections love.
- McGrath breaks down his favorite player prop bets from Tuesday's slate below.
After taking a good, long look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on the card.
Additionally, there’s a position player prop that I believe might provide some value while adding an extra sweat.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
|Phillies vs. Nationals||Phillies -125|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
There are all sorts of reasons to bet on Harper today. Let’s go down the list:
- Harper vs. Erick Fedde: Harper is 6-for-15 lifetime against Fedde with four home runs, three walks and just two strikeouts. Add in his 102-mph average exit velocity and 18.2 degree average launch angle, and Harper has produced a .504 xBA and a .695 xwOBA against Fedde in his career.
- Harper vs. Sinkers: Fedde throws his sinker almost half the time, and Harper loves that pitch. Harper is batting .324 with a .824 SLG against sinkers this year, while his expected statistics are even higher (.418 xBA, .94 xSLG). Plus, it’s not like Fedde’s sinker has been good this season (allowing a .293 xBA on the pitch).
- Harper vs. RHPs: Harper loves to smash righties, as he’s slugging .572 with a .962 OPS against that side. Against southpaws, those numbers drop to .409 SLG and .816 OPS.
- Harper Home/Road Splits: Harper has produced a .933 OPS in home games this season, compared to just .893 on the road.
Plus, while Harper has slashed .333/.424/.603 for a 1.026 OPS this month, Fedde has posted an 8.71 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP over his past five starts.
Everything is coming up Harper, so I’ll happily play over 1.5 bases at close to even money.
Sandy Alcantara — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Marlins vs. Orioles||Marlins -145|
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
Alcantara is coming off back-to-back low-quality starts. However, after surrendering a bunch of hits and runs to the Dodgers and the Phillies, he’s got a good chance to bounce back today against the lowly Orioles.
It’s easy to overlook — because the Marlins are a combination of unlucky and bad — but Alcantara has been one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.
Not only has Alcantara posted a 3.23 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while allowing low batted ball stats (3.5% barrel rate, 37.6% hard-hit rate), he’s been a workhorse. Alcantara has pitched the 12th-most innings in the majors this season (119 1/3) and has averaged almost six innings per start.
Alcantara’s strikeout numbers won’t pop out at you (7.9 K/9), but he can always cash these overs because of how many innings he eats up. When Alcantara is pitching well, he produces a lot of strikeout opportunities.
Given he’s facing a downgrade in talent from his last few outings, and the O’s lineup has posted the sixth-highest strikeout rate over the past 30 days (24.3%), I think he’ll capitalize on those opportunities today.
The Action Labs player props tool is projecting this total at 5.6, so there’s lots of value on the over 4.5 number DraftKings is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Logan Webb — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Giants vs. Dodgers||Giants +105|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
Here are Webb’s two starts against the Dodgers this season:
- 7/21 @ LAD: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
- 5/29 @ LAD: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Today, Webb gets to handle a banged-up Dodgers lineup (Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and Max Muncy are all dealing with injuries) while pitching at home this time, where he is much better:
Plus, the Dodgers haven’t been their usual disciplined selves recently. Over the past 30 days, the Dodgers have posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB (23.9%).
The Action Labs tool is projecting Webb at 5.6 strikeouts today, and I absolutely love Webb to cash the over 4.5 number in this spot — which you can bet at DraftKings.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10