MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Hyun-Jin Ryu & Luis Garcia (Wednesday, July 7)
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Garcia
With a full slate of baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Wednesday’s Major League Baseball card.
There are two strikeout props that I like, an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 61-49, +3.18 Units, +2.9% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR) — 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-135)
|Blue Jays at Orioles||Blue Jays -190|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a down year. In 16 starts, Ryu has a 7-5 record with a 3.65 ERA, and a 4.00 xFIP. The numbers have been OK, but not up to the standards of Ryu or the Blue Jays after he took over as the ace of the staff a season ago. More strangely, Ryu is averaging only 7.11 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is a career low.
One of Ryu’s strengths is that he can be relied upon to pitch deep into games. Ryu is averaging almost six innings per start, which is rare nowadays, and has 4.74 strikeouts per game, which is higher than his strikeout total is set on Wednesday.
The median MLB team is averaging 8.76 strikeouts per game this season, and the opposing Baltimore Orioles average 8.75 strikeouts per game. If Ryu reverts to his career strikeout rate of 8.10 strikeouts per nine innings, he should have 5.4 strikeouts in a typical start for the remainder of the season.
At even money at BetMGM, the over is worth a bet, and I would bet it up to -115.
Pick: Hyun-Jin Ryu Over 4.5 Strikeouts +100 (BetMGM) would bet it up to -115
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
Luis Garcia (HOU) — 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-155)
|Athletics at Astros||Astros (-150)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Luis Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Houston Astros this season. The 24-year-old has a 6-5 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.12 xFIP. He is averaging 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings. The Athletics are disciplined at the plate and his strikeout rate has been set at 6.5 strikeouts, which is just a bit too high.
Garcia is only averaging 5 1/3 innings per start. For strikeout props, the most important variable besides strikeout rate is how deep a pitcher can go in a game. In a typical Garcia start this season, he pitches for 5 1/3 innings and has only 5.97 strikeouts
The A’s average 8.6 strikeouts per game, which is the 10th-best in the league. Oakland has 1.8% fewer strikeouts per game than the median MLB lineup. When you adjust Garcia’s strikeout total to the Athletics lineup, he should have 5.86 strikeouts in a typical start against the Athletics.
At -155 the price on Garcia’s under is steep, but it is worth it, and I would bet it up to -170.
Pick: Luis Garcia Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155) (BetMGM) would bet up to -170
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 4