MLB Player Prop Bets & Predictions: Target 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Ian Anderson & Scott Kazmir (Thursday, September 30)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Kazmir
- Ian Anderson against the Phillies and Scott Kazmir against the Diamondbacks are player props worth considering tonight.
- Anderson's strikeout total is set at 4.5 and Kazmir's is at 3.5.
- Continue reading for a breakdown of the props slate and how to play those two strikeout totals tonight.
After hitting both plays on Wednesday, the Action Network’s MLB player props team is back with two more bets today.
After taking a good, long look at the MLB slate using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified two strikeout totals that provide value on the slate — one under and one over.
Action Labs grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Ian Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Braves vs. Phillies||Braves (-150)|
|Time||7:20 p.m. ET|
Anderson has made five starts sincehis return from the IR on August 29. While he recorded zero strikeouts in his first two starts back, he’s ripped through batters in his last three starts:
- 9/10 vs. MIA: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K
- 9/17 @ SFG: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K
- 9/22 @ ARI: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 8 K
The Braves are getting closer to locking up the NL East title, holding a 4.5 game lead over the Phillies. But they still have something to play for, and Anderson is going to be a huge part of their playoff run. He’s an astounding young arm who needs to perform well to round out the rotation.
More relevant to this play, however, is that he’s pitched well against the Phillies. He’s got a 3.06 xFIP in his four starts against Philadelphia this season, hitting over 4.5 strikeouts in three of those four starts.
Today, the Action Labs Player Props tool projects Anderson’s strikeout total at 5.2, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has Anderson at 5.25. Either way, we’ve got good value on the over 4.5 number DraftKings is offering us.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Scott Kazmir Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Giants vs. Diamondbacks||Giants (-225)|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
Although I faded the Diamondbacks Wednesday and Alex Wood dominated the lineup, I’m going back to the well with Kazmir’s under today.
Kazmir’s made three MLB starts this season, going under 3.5 in all three of them. He managed just three against the strikeout-happy Cubs, and just three in four innings against the Padres.
Over the past month, the Diamondbacks have struck out at the MLB average rate. However, Kazmir misses bats at a below-average rate, as his 23.9% Called Strike plus Whiff rate ranks in just the 10th percentile of starting pitchers.
While his sample size is small, I think it’s predictive enough. While it’s more difficult to project how many innings he might pitch, I’m thinking we won’t see a lot of length from him today.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Kazmir at just 2.2 strikeouts today, creating good value on the under 3.5 number DraftKings is offering us.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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