MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Prop Bets, Including Kris Bryant, Patrick Corbin & Jorge Lopez (July 28)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant
- Another full slate of MLB action on Wednesday means plenty of opportunities in the props market.
- From strikeout totals to offensive player props, we have you covered.
- Tanner McGrath offers his favorite picks from the slate below.
After taking a good, long look at Wednesday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting.
Additionally, there’s a position player prop that I believe might provide some value while adding an extra sweat.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Jorge López — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Marlins vs. Orioles||Orioles +100|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
López has been hovering around this number for a while, posting 16 strikeouts over 16 innings in his last four starts. I think the Marlins offense is going to tip him over the line today.
While the Marlins have posted big numbers over the past few days, they still boast a below-average lineup, and they’ve struck out a lot recently. Over the past 30 days, the Marlins boast a 96 wRC+ with the third-highest strikeout rate – 26.2%.
López is not a good pitcher. In fact, he’s probably one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. However, he does love to throw the sinker (34.3% of the time) and the Marlins struggle with that pitch, recording the third-worst weighted sinker runs created in MLB (-7.9).
The Action Labs player prop tool is projecting Lopez at 5.1 strikeouts today, so hold your nose and play the value at plus-money.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Patrick Corbin — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Editor’s Note: Wednesday’s game between the Nationals and Phillies has been postponed because of a COVID-19 outbreak within the Washington organization.
|Nationals vs. Phillies||Nationals +185|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Corbin is lost right now. Here’s his last four starts:
- 7/1 vs. LAD: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K
- 7/7 @ SDP: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K
- 7/17 vs. SDP: 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 4 BB, 3 K
- 7/23 @ BAL: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K
The Phillies aren’t the Dodgers or Padres, but they play much better at home (30-20 home record) and boast an above-average lineup. Plus, they’re striking out at the eighth-lowest rate in MLB over the past 30 days (21.7%).
I’m expecting Corbin to struggle again today. Whether he fails to miss bats or gets pulled early, look for a lot of balls in play today.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Kris Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
|Cubs vs. Reds||Cubs -105|
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
Kris Bryant: Fastball killer.
This season, Bryant is slugging a whopping .628 against four-seam fastballs while posting a .310 xBA. His hard-hit rate on the pitch is nearly 50%, and smashing fastballs is a big reason why he’s having a great year.
His opponent today, Tyler Mahle, loves to throw the fastball. He tosses a four-seam more than half the time, and that’s probably why Bryant has had so much success against him in the past. Bryant is 7-for-18 lifetime against Mahle with two doubles and three home runs.
Mahle is having a pretty good season, but he’s also allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over his past 16 1/3 innings. He’s also struggling with his control, as he’s walked 15 batters in his past four starts.
I like Bryant’s chances to knock a couple hits or snag extra-bases against Mahle’s fastball tonight. You can snag this prop on DraftKings for -105, but I would be weary betting it at a worse number than that.