MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: How To Bet Logan Webb & Freddie Freeman (Tuesday, Sept. 28)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants.
- We're down the final stretch of the MLB season, which gives bettors few chances to profit.
- The Action Labs Player Prop tool has been winning all season, and two key contributors stand out on Tuesday night.
- Tanner McGrath breaks down his favorite bets of the night below.
Tuesday brings us a loaded MLB slate, and even though we only have a few days left in the season, there are still plenty of games with playoff implications left.
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified four plays that provide value on today’s MLB slate.
I’ve decided to pair the four together as a Prize Picks flex play. If you haven’t used Prize Picks before, it’s worth giving it a try! Here’s how it works:
We’ll play our four plays together like a parlay, but it’s similar to a round-robin. If we hit three of our four plays, we’ll earn a 1.5X multiplier on our initial wager. If we hit all three, we’ll earn a 5X multiplier on our initial wager.
So, if you choose to wager $10, you’ll profit $15 on the former and $50 on the latter.
I highly recommend everyone reading this to check Prize Picks out. Otherwise, feel free to make these plays separately, and I’ll include the Action Labs grades for each play below my explanations.
MLB Prize Picks Play for Tuesday
Michael Wacha Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 on FanDuel)
Wacha is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. He ranks among the bottom five percent of qualified pitchers in the following statistics:
- xERA (5.84)
- xBA (.286)
- xSLG (.508)
- xwOBA (.361)
- xwOBACON (.448)
- Barrel Rate (11.1%)
Wacha can record strikeouts, but he does it two ways. First, he keeps pitches in the zone, walking just 5.7% of batters faced, ranking in the 87th percentile among starting pitchers. And second, he gets guys to chase, ranking in the 93rd percentile among starting pitchers in Chase Rate.
Unfortunately, he’s facing the Astros, who chase at the fifth-lowest rate in the league (25.6%). Plus, while they swing at the second-lowest rate in the league (45.2%), they have the highest Zone Contact rate (85.3%) and highest Chase Contact rate (62.2%).
As such, the Astros Whiff (21.2%) and strikeout (19.4%) at the lowest rate in MLB. They also walk at the ninth highest rate (9.1%).
Let’s not forget that the Astros can mash. This lineup features seven batters that have an OPS+ above 120.
When Wacha faced Houston on May 2, the Astros lit him up for four runs on five hits through 2 2/3 innings and Wacha recorded just three strikeouts.
Look for the Astros’ disciplined and talented lineup to overpower Wacha tonight. If they don’t do that, don’t expect Wacha to miss enough bats to cash this number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120 on DraftKings)
Freeland has pitched fine this season, and his 4.23 xERA and 4.13 xFIP even suggest he’s due for some positive regression.
However, the Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected for just 4.1 strikeouts today. That’s primarily due to the Nationals’ offense.
The Nationals are one of the most disciplined teams in MLB. Just look at Juan Soto, who has posted a .590 OBP in September thanks to a 27% walk rate and a 6% strikeout rate.
However, the whole team has followed in Soto’s footsteps. The Nationals have struck out at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB, at 21.2%. However, over the past 30 days and against LHPs, that number drops all the way to 16%.
Yesterday, German Marquez managed just four strikeouts over five innings against this offense. On the season, Marquez has posted an 8.80 K/9, while Freeland has posted just an 8.05 K/9.
The Nationals’ offense should remain disciplined enough to keep Freeland under this number. And maybe Washington’s lineup gets a Coors Field boost and puts up enough runs to knock Freeland out of the game early.
Either way, there’s value on the under in this spot.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings)
Logan Webb continues to be one of the best starting pitchers in the league. He’s stayed relatively under the radar as well, as you still can’t bet him to win NL Cy Young at DraftKings.
Webb had a rough outing last time out against the Padres, but in the 17 starts before that, he posted a 2.06 ERA, a 2.53 xFIP, and a .90 WHIP. The Giants went 16-1 in those games.
During that stretch, Webb posted a 9.7 K/9, but he’s racked up his strikeouts in recent weeks. Webb has cashed this number in eight of his last 10 starts, averaging 7.1 strikeouts per start during that stretch.
Today, he faces a Diamondbacks squad that has struck out vs. RHPs at the fifth-highest rate on the season (24.9%) and the 10th-highest rate on the season (25%). Meanwhile, Arizona has posted just a 69 wRC+ over the past 30 days, good for dead last in MLB during the stretch.
I’m expecting Webb to miss bats in a lengthy start today, which is why the Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at 6.2 strikeouts.
Action Labs Player Props Grade: 7/10
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits + Walks (Prize Picks)
During September, Freeman has posted a .408 OBP and a .951 OPS. During that stretch, he’s 31-for-91 with 12 extra-base hits, and he’s also walked nine times while striking out just 11 times.
Over his past 30 games, he’s had at least one base knock in 23 of them, and at least two in 12 of them.
Today, he faces the great Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is a Cy Young favorite, but he’s had his struggles against Freeman.
In 61 lifetime PAs against Wheeler, Freeman is 20-for-45 with a whopping 15 walks. His discipline and batted ball statistics have led to a .410 xwOBA during that time.
The Braves are hanging on to a 2.5-game lead in the division, and that’s largely due to Freeman’s second-half surge. I think gets on base more than a few times today.
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